El Niño’s intensity change under anthropogenic warming is of great importance to society, yet current climate models’ projections remain largely uncertain. The current classification of El Niño does not distinguish the strong from the moderate El Niño events, making it difficult to project future change of El Niño’s intensity. Here we classify 33 El Niño events from 1901 to 2017 by cluster analysis of the onset and amplification processes, and the resultant 4 types of El Niño distinguish the strong from the moderate events and the onset from successive events. The 3 categories of El Niño onset exhibit distinct development mechanisms. We find El Niño onset regime has changed from eastern Pacific origin to western Pacific origin with more frequent occurrence of extreme events since the 1970s. This regime change is hypothesized to arise from a background warming in the western Pacific and the associated increased zonal and vertical sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial central Pacific, which reveals a controlling factor that could lead to increased extreme El Niño events in the future. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models’ projections demonstrate that both the frequency and intensity of the strong El Niño events will increase significantly if the projected central Pacific zonal SST gradients become enhanced. If the currently observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Niño events are anticipated. The models’ uncertainty in the projected equatorial zonal SST gradients, however, remains a major roadblock for faithful prediction of El Niño’s future changes.

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This study tested the hypothesis that soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) spatial distributions show clear relationships with soil properties and vegetation composition as well as climatic conditions. Further, this study aimed to find the corresponding controlling parameters of SOC and TN storage in high-altitude ecosystems. The study was based on soil, vegetation and climate data from 42 soil pits taken from 14 plots. The plots were investigated during the summers of 2009 and 2010 at the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Relationships of SOC density with soil moisture, soil texture, biomass and climatic variables were analyzed. Further, storage and vertical patterns of SOC and TN of seven representative vegetation types were estimated. The results show that significant relationships of SOC density with belowground biomass (BGB) and soil moisture (SM) can be observed. BGB and SM may be the dominant factors influencing SOC density in the topsoil of the study area. The average densities of SOC and TN at a depth of 1 m were about 7.72 kg C m −2 and 0.93 kg N m −2 . Both SOC and TN densities were concentrated in the topsoil (0-20 cm) and fell exponentially as soil depth increased. Additionally, the four typical vegetation types located in the northwest of the study area were selected to examine the relationship between SOC and environmental factors (temperature and precipitation). The results indicate that SOC density has a negative relationship with temperature and a positive relationship with precipitation diminishing with soil depth. It was concluded that SOC was concentrated in the topsoil, and that SOC density correlates well with BGB. SOC was predominantly influenced by SM, and to a much lower extent by temperature and precipitation. This study provided a new insight in understanding the control of SOC and TN density in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.