Hidden Fiscal Risks in Local China (中国地方政府的隐性财政风险)

Ma, Jun

doi:10.1111/1467-8500.12028

Cited by 14 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 3 publications

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“…Debt risk (DRisk): Fan and Lv (2012) used the debt ratio (total debt / GDP) as a risk measurement indicator, and believed that debt ratio remains below 50% was manageable. Ma (2013) provided the viewpoint that the proportion of debt scale to GDP is close to 60%, which was regarded as a risk warning line. Based on previous literature, we use the ratio of the UIBs' scale and GDP to express the debt risk and measure the bearing capacity of the local economy's total scale to local debt.…”

Section: Descriptive Statistics and Definitions Of The Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land Assets, Urban Investment Bonds, and Local Governments' Debt Risk, China

Zhang

et al. 2020

International Journal of Strategic Property Management

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As the collateral for the issuance of urban investment bonds (UIBs), land leasing revenue is the fund that is used to repay the debt with large-scale land hoarding and increasing land price due to China’s rapid urbanization. This paper employs the fixed effect model and panel data from 2006 to 2015 to analyze the influence of land hoarding and price on debt scale and risk of local governments. Results reveal that both land hoarding scale and land price exhibit a positive influence on the UIBs’ scale and risk. However, regional differences are evident. In the Eastern region, the correlation between land asset and UIBs can be testified.

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Section: Descriptive Statistics and Definitions Of The Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land Assets, Urban Investment Bonds, and Local Governments' Debt Risk, China

Zhang

et al. 2020

International Journal of Strategic Property Management

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The Risks of Chinese Subnational Debt for Public Financial Management

Guess

2015

Public Admin & Development

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This paper examines the important challenge to effective public financial management (PFM) of fiscal risk. In the case of China, a middle-income country with space to borrow, a major source of risk to the central government is exposure from subnational government debts. In order to control this exposure and manage it properly, it is important that the level of debt be included in consolidated balance sheets and that liabilities be recognized. This is important not only for narrow maintenance of financial position (or PFM discipline) purposes but also to increase national welfare. Managing fiscal risks from this broader perspective suggests that governments may want to absorb particular risks for purposes such as: unemployment, old age, and poverty spending. Governments often need to cost-effectively bear some of these risks in order lower social costs and maximize national wellbeing. But to do this properly, the government must know first the stock and flow of its total debt. To date, subnational debts in China have not been properly quantified, and available donor tools such as the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) framework are weak.key words-measuring public sector fiduciary or fiscal risk; Chinese local government debt; Chinese subnational government; PEFA; aid devolution public administration and development Public Admin. Dev. 35, 128-139 (2015) Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com)

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