Going beyond two degrees? The risks and opportunities of alternative options

Jordan, Andrew; Rayner, Tim; Schroeder, Heike; Adger, W. Neil; Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice; Quéré, Corinne Le; Joshi, Manoj; Mander, Sarah; Vaughan, Naomi E.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine

doi:10.1080/14693062.2013.835705

Cited by 107 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Global emissions of GHG are currently tracking on a high-end trajectory, viz. higher than the most fossil-fuel intensive emissions scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Jordan et al 2013; IPCC (WGIII) 2014). Good risk management involves preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?

Dunn

Rounsevell

Carlsen³

et al. 2017

Climatic Change

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We explore the individual and institutional conditions and the climate information used to underpin decision-making for adaptation to high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios in a land resource management context. HECC refers to extreme projections with global annual temperature increases of over 4°C. We analyse whether HECC scenarios are used in the adaptation decision-making of stakeholders who will tackle the potential problem. We also explore whether the adaptation actions being considered are pertinent only to future climate change or whether other drivers and information types are used in decision-making (including Climatic Change (2017) Adaptation Scotland/SNIFFER, Edinburgh, Scotland non-climate drivers). We also address the role of knowledge uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability of occurrence and so they do not directly account for HECC within existing actions to address climate change. Such actions focus on incremental rather than transformative solutions in which non-climate drivers are at least as important, and in many cases more important, than climate change alone. This reflects the need to accommodate multiple concerns and low risk options (i.e. incremental change). Uncertainty in climate change information is not a significant barrier to decision-making and stakeholders indicated little need for more climate information in support of adaptation decision-making. There is, however, an identified need for more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts under HECC scenarios. The outcomes of this study provide evidence to assist in contextualising climate change information by creating usable, cross-sectoral, decision-centred information.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?

Dunn

Rounsevell

Carlsen³

et al. 2017

Climatic Change

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show abstract

“…Projections based on current trends point to much more substantial levels of warming, including of 4°C or more, unless there is radical action to cut greenhouse gas emissions (Jordan et al 2013;Gasser et al 2015). More specifically, the latest estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show the possibility of a 3.7-4.8°C increase in global temperature by the end of the twenty-first century based on current mitigation efforts, with even larger ranges (2.5-7.8°C) if climate uncertainty is included (Edenhofer et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

et al. 2018

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Despite the Paris Agreement target of holding global temperature increases 1.5 to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios going beyond 4°C are becoming increasingly plausible. HECC may imply increasing climate variability and extremes as well as the triggering of tipping points, posing further difficulties for adaptation. This paper compares the outcomes of four concurrent European case studies (EU, Hungary, Portugal, and Scotland) that explore the individual and institutional conditions, and the information used to underpin adaptation-related decision-making in the context of HECC. The focus is on (i) whether HECC scenarios are used in current adaptation-related decision-making processes; (ii) the role of uncertainty and how climate and non-climate information is used (or not) in these processes; and (iii) the information types (including socio-economic drivers) commonly used and their limitations in relation to HECC scenarios. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability or distant occurrence and do not routinely account for HECC scenarios within existing climate actions. Decision-makers also perceive non-climate drivers as at least as important, in many cases more important, than climate change alone. Whilst more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts is needed, climate change uncertainty is not a significant barrier to decision-making. Further understanding of individual and institutional challenges brought about by the 'squeeze' between adapting to HECC scenarios or to lower levels of temperature change (as those agreed in Paris) is essential to better contextualise the use of climate change information.

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“…), l'écart entre les trajectoires d'émission compatibles avec les 2°C et les émissions effectives est de plus en plus reconnu. Les décideurs sont alors pris dans un dilemme : admettre que l'objectif des 2°C ne sera pas atteint, c'est paraître accepter l'échec, voire y contribuer ; refuser de l'admettre, c'est se voiler la face... Une équipe britannique a voulu affronter ce dilemme en analysant pour la première fois en profondeur quatre options alternatives : 1) chercher à rester sous les 2°C pour la réduction des émissions, tout en se préparant à une hausse de 4°C pour l'adaptation ; 2) adopter d'autres métriques et objectifs, et traiter en même temps d'autres problèmes environnementaux ; 3) être politiquement pragmatique et favoriser des actions au bénéfice plus rapide ; 4) renouveler l'engagement envers les 2°C (Jordan et al, 2013). Les chercheurs, combinant perspectives de sciences du climat et de sciences sociales, ont comparé les risques, opportunités et incertitudes associés à ces différentes options, pour finalement conclure que la moins mauvaise est de renouveler l'engagement de 2°C… On peut penser que va se multiplier, d'ici la COP de Paris et au-delà, ce type de travaux qui envisagent plusieurs alternatives et veulent prendre en compte à la fois les objectifs scientifiques et les réalités politicoéconomiques.…”

Section: L'objectif Des 2°c Sur La Selletteunclassified

Les relations entre science et politique dans le régime climatique : à la recherche d’un nouveau modèle d’expertise ?

Dahan

Guillemot

2015

Nat. Sci. Soc.

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Résumé -Depuis vingt-cinq ans, le changement climatique anthropogénique est appréhendé comme une question d'environnement global. Les sciences du climat jouent un rôle primordial dans la construction du problème, qui se veut résumé par la formule « science speaks truth to power », science et politique étant supposées séparées et étanches. Ce cadrage jusqu'ici dominant est aujourd'hui ébranlé par l'échec des négociations internationales : il est devenu manifeste que le consensus scientifique ne suffit pas à engendrer des décisions politiques globales significatives. À l'heure de la COP de Paris, alors que se discute la nécessité de changer de paradigme dans la négociation, cet article veut s'interroger sur l'évolution des relations entre science et politique dans le régime climatique, en revenant sur la vision du rôle de la science et en évoquant les critiques, propositions et perspectives qui se dessinent à propos des modèles d'expertise.Abstract -Relations between science and politics in the climate regime: In search of a new model of expertise? Over the past 25 years, anthropogenic climate change has been addressed as a global environmental problem, which must be resolved by reducing human greenhouse gas emissions through a global agreement negotiated under the auspices of the UN. The role of sciences in the construction of the problem is essential and is aptly summarized by the claim that "science speaks truth to power," with science and politics assumed to be hermetically separated. Although this "linear model" is in fact largely inadequate to account for the much more complex links between climate science and politics, notably within the IPCC, it has long been hegemonic, leading to debates focused on science rather than political responses. This dominant approach has been undermined by the failure of international negotiations: it is now clear that scientific consensus does not suffice to produce significant global political decisions. It is now evident that climate change is a geopolitical, economic, and development problem as much as an environmental one. As the Paris CoP approaches, in a phase of political uncertainties and discussions around the need for a change of paradigm in negotiations, our paper examines critically the evolving relationship between science and politics in the climate regime, revisiting the role of science and discussing emerging critiques, proposals, and perspectives on models of expertise.Natures Sciences Sociétés, 23, supplément, S6-S18 (2015)

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Going beyond two degrees? The risks and opportunities of alternative options

Cited by 107 publications

References 67 publications

To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?

To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

Les relations entre science et politique dans le régime climatique : à la recherche d’un nouveau modèle d’expertise ?

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