Wine production is climate dependent and highly sensitive to weather variability, which makes the sector a good indicator of ongoing and future climate change impacts. Under high-end climate change (HECC), temperatures in Scotland are projected to increase significantly by the end of the twenty-first century. This raises the possibility of future temperatures becoming sufficiently high to support the growth of wine grapes. In this paper, we explore to what extent Scotland might become suitable for wine production under HECC using a climate analogue approach. Specifically, we address the following questions. What are the projected late twenty-first century temperature changes in Scotland? Where in Europe are current climates (based on summer and annual temperatures) similar to those projected for Scotland by the end of the twenty-first century under HECC? Are any of these locations currently wine grape growing regions? The temperature analogues towards the end of the twenty-first century occurred at more southerly latitudes in Europe, with some variability from west to east arising from the influence of continental climates. Temperature analogues alone match with several current wine grape growing regions of Europe, suggesting that future climates in Scotland could support wine production. However, when precipitation and/or lithology and topography are also taken into account, no matches were found with existing European wine grape growing regions. This study demonstrates how the use of climate analogues in combination with other environmental datasets can be useful in understanding future climate change impacts, especially under HECC.
Background and Aims: Which characteristics make future climate change information valuable for on-ground decision making for adaptation in the winegrape sector? And at what spatial and temporal scales will it be needed by Users? Methods and Results: This paper presents the results of a two-stage mixed methods study conducted with viticulturists, winemakers and industry representatives in the winegrape sector in Australia. For long-term decision making, participants focus on the concept of future climate analogues as being the most useful form of future climate information. Information provided at spatial scales the size of growing regions adequately meets the needs of most of these Users; and is wanted over time frames of five to 20 years into the future. Importantly, almost three quarters of the participants indicated that the uncertainty surrounding future climate change would not stop them from considering climate change when making decisions about adapting their practices. Conclusions: This research suggests that the outputs of future climate models are typically presented at the wrong spatial and temporal scales and in a format which is not appropriate for Users in viticulture in Australia. Significance of the Study:This study broadens the research on the perspectives of end Users concerning information needs for long-term decision making for climate change adaptation to include the viticulture sector.
Despite the Paris Agreement target of holding global temperature increases 1.5 to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios going beyond 4°C are becoming increasingly plausible. HECC may imply increasing climate variability and extremes as well as the triggering of tipping points, posing further difficulties for adaptation. This paper compares the outcomes of four concurrent European case studies (EU, Hungary, Portugal, and Scotland) that explore the individual and institutional conditions, and the information used to underpin adaptation-related decision-making in the context of HECC. The focus is on (i) whether HECC scenarios are used in current adaptation-related decision-making processes; (ii) the role of uncertainty and how climate and non-climate information is used (or not) in these processes; and (iii) the information types (including socio-economic drivers) commonly used and their limitations in relation to HECC scenarios. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability or distant occurrence and do not routinely account for HECC scenarios within existing climate actions. Decision-makers also perceive non-climate drivers as at least as important, in many cases more important, than climate change alone. Whilst more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts is needed, climate change uncertainty is not a significant barrier to decision-making. Further understanding of individual and institutional challenges brought about by the 'squeeze' between adapting to HECC scenarios or to lower levels of temperature change (as those agreed in Paris) is essential to better contextualise the use of climate change information.
We explore the individual and institutional conditions and the climate information used to underpin decision-making for adaptation to high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios in a land resource management context. HECC refers to extreme projections with global annual temperature increases of over 4°C. We analyse whether HECC scenarios are used in the adaptation decision-making of stakeholders who will tackle the potential problem. We also explore whether the adaptation actions being considered are pertinent only to future climate change or whether other drivers and information types are used in decision-making (including Climatic Change (2017) Adaptation Scotland/SNIFFER, Edinburgh, Scotland non-climate drivers). We also address the role of knowledge uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability of occurrence and so they do not directly account for HECC within existing actions to address climate change. Such actions focus on incremental rather than transformative solutions in which non-climate drivers are at least as important, and in many cases more important, than climate change alone. This reflects the need to accommodate multiple concerns and low risk options (i.e. incremental change). Uncertainty in climate change information is not a significant barrier to decision-making and stakeholders indicated little need for more climate information in support of adaptation decision-making. There is, however, an identified need for more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts under HECC scenarios. The outcomes of this study provide evidence to assist in contextualising climate change information by creating usable, cross-sectoral, decision-centred information.
The ‘crit’, short for ‘criticism’, is an assessment practice central to the education of the architect, internationally. It has its roots in the psychologist, Jean Piaget’s constructivism framework which at its core aims to place the student at the centre of the learning experience and allow them to develop critical thinking and creative skills through learning-by-doing. The ‘crit’ also aims to foster a culture of learning and reflective practice as described by Donald Schon in The Reflective Practitioner – How Professionals Think In Action, 1983, so the student gains agency over their education. Because crits take place in architecture and art schools, it might be assumed that they serve these educational ends. However, there is a great deal of evidence – both empirical and critical – to suggest that crits encourage conformity rather than creativity, and that they serve dominant cultural paradigms rather than the ideal of open-ended learning.
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