Global Perspectives on Loss of Human Life Caused by Floods

Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

doi:10.1007/s11069-004-8891-3

Cited by 715 publications

(442 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Flooding is the most frequently occurring natural disaster in the world (Jonkman 2005). However, it is expected that flooding is going to occur even more frequently in the future as a result of climate change (Lenderink and Van Meijgaard 2008;Min et al 2011;Rojas et al 2013;Bruwier et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

2016

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Climate change is expected to result in an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In turn, this will result in more frequent occurrences of extreme flood events, such as flash flooding and large-scale river flooding. This being the case, there is a need for more accurate flood risk assessment schemes, particularly in areas prone to extreme flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by extreme flooding. Two flood hazard assessment criteria were tested, namely: a widely used, empirically derived method, and recently introduced, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. The two selected flood hazard assessment methods were: (1) validated against experimental data, and (2) used to assess flood hazard indices for two different extreme flood events, namely: the 2010 Kostanjevica na Krki extreme river flood and the 2007 Ž elezniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas prone to extreme flooding, the flood hazard indices should be based on using the formulae derived for a mechanics-based analysis, as these formulations consider all of the physical forces acting on a human body in floodwaters, take into account the rapid changes in the flow regime, which often occur for extreme flood events, and enable a rapid assessment of the degree of flood hazard risk in a short time period, a feature particularly important when assessing flood hazard indices for high Froude numbers flows.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

2016

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“…An analysis of global statistics showed that inland floods (river floods, flash floods and drainage floods) caused 175,000 fatalities and affected more than 2.2 billion people between 1975(Jonkman 2005. In these statistics the consequences of other types of floods such as coastal floods and tsunamis are not included.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies investigate loss of life patterns on global scale (Berz et al 2001;Jonkman 2005) or discuss loss of life in the context of general public health impacts (Hajat et al 2003;Ahern et al 2005). Other studies focus on the analysis of the causes and circumstances of individual flood disaster deaths for specific regions or events (Coates 1999;Jonkman and Kelman 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

2008

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This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article, a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics, (2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population. By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a largescale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands. It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.

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“…According to Kron (2002), river flooding is caused by heavy precipitation and/ or the melting of snow, making rivers overflow their banks to cover land not usually covered by water. However, river flooding may be predicted by specific methods (Jonkman 2005). While reaction time plays a major role in the management of all natural disasters, it is particularly crucial in the case of floods (Walder and O'Connor 1997).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

GIS-based spatial prediction of flood prone areas using standalone frequency ratio, logistic regression, weight of evidence and their ensemble techniques

Tehrany

Shabani

Jebur

et al. 2017

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

197

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The aim of this research was to evaluate the predictive performances of frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and weight of evidence (WoE), in flood susceptibility mapping in China. In addition, the ensemble WoE and LR and ensemble FR and LR techniques were applied and used in the evaluation. The flood inventory map, consisting of 196 flood locations, was extracted from a number of sources. The flood inventory data were randomly divided into a testing data-set, allocating 70% for training, and the remaining 30% for validation. The 15 flood conditioning factors included in the spatial database were altitude, slope, aspect, geology, distance from river, distance from road, distance from fault, soil type, land use/cover, rainfall, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Stream Power Index, Topographic Wetness Index, Sediment Transport Index and curvature. For validation, success and prediction rate curves were developed using area under the curve (AUC) method. The results indicated that the highest prediction rate of 90.36% was achieved using the ensemble technique of WoE and LR. The standalone WoE produced the highest prediction rate among the individual methods. It can be concluded that WoE offers a more advanced method of mapping prone areas, compared with the FR and LR methods.

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Global Perspectives on Loss of Human Life Caused by Floods

Cited by 715 publications

References 10 publications

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

GIS-based spatial prediction of flood prone areas using standalone frequency ratio, logistic regression, weight of evidence and their ensemble techniques

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