Global change and human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases

Bueno-Marí, Rubén; Jiménez-Peydró, Ricardo

doi:10.3389/fphys.2013.00158

Cited by 17 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…Quantitatively, our results corroborate existing knowledge about the role of rainfall and temperature in dengue transmission by showing increases in R 0 with increases in temperature and number of rainfall days [26, 27] (Supplementary Text). We also find an increase in population density is related to an increase in R 0 , when considering data from both cities separately (Supplementary Text).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Quantifying the impact of dengue containment activities using high-resolution observational data

Rehman

Salje

Kraemer

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Dengue virus causes over 96 million cases worldwide per year and is expanding rapidly in geographic range, especially in urban areas. Containment activities are an essential part of reducing the public health burden caused by dengue, but systematic evidence on the comparative efficacy of activities from the field is lacking. To our knowledge, the effect of containment activities on local (sub-city) scale disease dynamics has never been systematically characterized using empirical containment and case data. We combine data from a comprehensive dengue containment monitoring system with confirmed dengue case data from the local government hospitals to estimate the efficacy of seven common containment activities in two urban areas in Pakistan. We use a modified version of the time series Suspected Infected Recovered framework to estimate how the reproductive number, R 0 , of the outbreak changed in relation to deployment of each containment activity. We also estimate the spatial dependence of cases based on deployment of each containment activity. Both analyses suggest that activities aimed at the adult phase of the mosquito lifecycle have the highest efficacy, with fogging having the largest quantifiable effect in reducing cases immediately after deployment. In examining the efficacy of containment activities contemporaneously deployed in the same locations, results here can guide recommendations for future deployment of resources during dengue outbreaks in urban settings.Dengue is a global threat; rapidly spreading with more than one half 2 of the world's population at risk for infection [1, 2]. Dengue virus is the 3 most ubiquitous human arbovirus. It is transmitted primarily by Aedes ae-4 gypti mosquitoes, a vector which also transmits several other global threats 5 including Zika, chikungunya and yellow fever [3]. Today, severe dengue is 6 a leading cause of hospitalization and death among children and adults in 7 urban areas in Asia, and Central and South America [4]. Dengue dispro-8 portionately affects urban areas in developing countries, which often have 9 limited resources for containment and intervention activities [5, 6]. 10To date, the most common approach to reducing the burden of dengue 11 is through prevention and containment of the vector population [7, 8]. Con-12 tainment activities focused on vector control broadly fall into three cate-13 gories: (i) activities targeted at reducing mosquito breeding sites (source 14 reduction); (ii) activities targeted at the larval stage of the vector; and (iii) 15 activities targeted at the adult stage of the vector [9]. While recent work 16 has advanced efforts such as vaccines, genetically modified mosquitoes and 17 Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes [10], these interventions are generally seen as 18 a complement to containment activities [11], and may be prohibitively costly 19 for many countries [12]. 20 Despite the widespread use of containment activities, costing millions of 21 dollars each year, the evidence base of how these activities reduce dengue 22 risk is...

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Quantifying the impact of dengue containment activities using high-resolution observational data

Rehman

Salje

Kraemer

et al. 2018

Preprint

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“…Many arboviruses vectored by mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) have expanded their geographic range and managed to achieve greater expansion in areas where they did not exist before. Human movement, global trade, climate change, and availability of susceptible mosquito vectors has increased the introduction of diseases to populations that otherwise would have been safely out of reach [ 35 , 88 ]. In Morocco, as for the majority of North Africa and Middle East countries, the epidemiological situation of arboviruses remains poorly or even uncharacterized [ 61 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and mapping the habitat suitability and the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors in Morocco

et al. 2021

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Mosquitoes transmit several agents of diseases and the presence of different species represents a threat to animal and public health. Aedes and Culex mosquitoes are of particular concern giving their potential vector competence for Arbovirus transmission. In Morocco, the lack of detailed information related to their spatial distribution raises major concerns and hampers effective vector surveillance and control. Using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling, we generated prediction models for the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors (Aedes aegypti, Ae. vexans, Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus, and Culex pipiens) in Morocco, under current climatic conditions. Also, we investigated the habitat suitability for the potential occurrence and establishment of Ae. albopictus and Ae. vittatus recorded only once in the country. Prediction models for these last two species were generated considering occurrence datasets from close countries of the Mediterranean Basin, where Ae. albopictus is well established, and from a worldwide database for the case of Ae. vittatus (model transferability). With the exception of Ae. vittatus, the results identify potential habitat suitability in Morocco for all mosquitos considered. Existing areas with maximum risk of establishment and high potential distribution were mainly located in the northwestern and central parts of Morocco. Our results essentially underline the assumption that Ae. albopictus, if not quickly controlled, might find suitable habitats and has the potential to become established, especially in the northwest of the country. These findings may help to better understand the potential distribution of each species and enhance surveillance efforts in areas identified as high risk.

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“…Travelers infected with dengue virus during their trip returning home may place the local population at risk wherever mosquito vectors are present[ 8 , 9 ]. Therefore, the required conditions for the occurrence of a dengue outbreak in countries where dengue is not endemic include i) the presence of dengue viruses through repeated introduction of imported cases, ii) a sufficient density of competent vectors above the threshold, iii) a sufficient number of susceptible population, and iv) a favorable climatic and environmental condition for dengue transmission[ 10 ]. Furthermore, numerous studies suggested an effect of climate on DENV transmission through changes in vector population size and distribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Re-assess Vector Indices Threshold as an Early Warning Tool for Predicting Dengue Epidemic in a Dengue Non-endemic Country

et al. 2015

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BackgroundDespite dengue dynamics being driven by complex interactions between human hosts, mosquito vectors and viruses that are influenced by climate factors, an operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk in a dengue non-endemic area has not been developed. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the temporal relationship between meteorological variables, entomological surveillance indices and confirmed dengue cases; and to establish the threshold for entomological surveillance indices including three mosquito larval indices [Breteau (BI), Container (CI) and House indices (HI)] and one adult index (AI) as an early warning tool for dengue epidemic.Methodology/Principal FindingsEpidemiological, entomological and meteorological data were analyzed from 2005 to 2012 in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. The successive waves of dengue outbreaks with different magnitudes were recorded in Kaohsiung City, and involved a dominant serotype during each epidemic. The annual indigenous dengue cases usually started from May to June and reached a peak in October to November. Vector data from 2005–2012 showed that the peak of the adult mosquito population was followed by a peak in the corresponding dengue activity with a lag period of 1–2 months. Therefore, we focused the analysis on the data from May to December and the high risk district, where the inspection of the immature and mature mosquitoes was carried out on a weekly basis and about 97.9% dengue cases occurred. The two-stage model was utilized here to estimate the risk and time-lag effect of annual dengue outbreaks in Taiwan. First, Poisson regression was used to select the optimal subset of variables and time-lags for predicting the number of dengue cases, and the final results of the multivariate analysis were selected based on the smallest AIC value. Next, each vector index models with selected variables were subjected to multiple logistic regression models to examine the accuracy of predicting the occurrence of dengue cases. The results suggested that Model-AI, BI, CI and HI predicted the occurrence of dengue cases with 83.8, 87.8, 88.3 and 88.4% accuracy, respectively. The predicting threshold based on individual Model-AI, BI, CI and HI was 0.97, 1.16, 1.79 and 0.997, respectively.Conclusion/SignificanceThere was little evidence of quantifiable association among vector indices, meteorological factors and dengue transmission that could reliably be used for outbreak prediction. Our study here provided the proof-of-concept of how to search for the optimal model and determine the threshold for dengue epidemics. Since those factors used for prediction varied, depending on the ecology and herd immunity level under different geological areas, different thresholds may be developed for different countries using a similar structure of the two-stage model.

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Global change and human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases

Cited by 17 publications

References 0 publications

Quantifying the impact of dengue containment activities using high-resolution observational data

Quantifying the impact of dengue containment activities using high-resolution observational data

Modeling and mapping the habitat suitability and the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors in Morocco

Re-assess Vector Indices Threshold as an Early Warning Tool for Predicting Dengue Epidemic in a Dengue Non-endemic Country

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