Modeling and mapping the habitat suitability and the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors in Morocco

Abstract

Mosquitoes transmit several agents of diseases and the presence of different species represents a threat to animal and public health. Aedes and Culex mosquitoes are of particular concern giving their potential vector competence for Arbovirus transmission. In Morocco, the lack of detailed information related to their spatial distribution raises major concerns and hampers effective vector surveillance and control. Using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling, we generated prediction models for the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors (Aedes aegypti, Ae. vexans, Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus, and Culex pipiens) in Morocco, under current climatic conditions. Also, we investigated the habitat suitability for the potential occurrence and establishment of Ae. albopictus and Ae. vittatus recorded only once in the country. Prediction models for these last two species were generated considering occurrence datasets from close countries of the Mediterranean Basin, where Ae. albopictus is well established, and from a worldwide database for the case of Ae. vittatus (model transferability). With the exception of Ae. vittatus, the results identify potential habitat suitability in Morocco for all mosquitos considered. Existing areas with maximum risk of establishment and high potential distribution were mainly located in the northwestern and central parts of Morocco. Our results essentially underline the assumption that Ae. albopictus, if not quickly controlled, might find suitable habitats and has the potential to become established, especially in the northwest of the country. These findings may help to better understand the potential distribution of each species and enhance surveillance efforts in areas identified as high risk.

A Review on Climate, Air Pollution, and Health in North Africa

“…Abdelkrim and colleagues have modeled and mapped the habitat suitability and the potential distribution of arboviruses vectors in Morocco using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling under current climatic conditions. Results show that areas with maximum risk and high potential distribution were mainly located in the Northwestern and central parts of Morocco [ 99 ]. Some other authors focused on Zika as arbovirus; they investigated suitable temperatures for their transmission [ 27 ].…”

Species distribution modeling of Aedes aegypti in Maricopa County, Arizona from 2014 to 2020

“…The first step in the modeling process involved evaluating the correlation of the five rasters (NDVI, NDMI, elevation, population density, median income) from each quarter to ensure that no rasters had a correlation of >0.7, as was done in Estallo et al (2018) and Abdelkrim et al (2021). Next, we determined the best settings with which to run Maxent for each quarter individually using the ENMeval package (Version 2.0.2) in RStudio (Version 1.4.1717) using 10-fold cross validation (Kass et al, 2021;R Core Team, 2021).…”

“…Some studies have used a similar but slightly different approach than the study presented in this manuscript by utilizing climate variables rather than satellite imagery to predict habitat suitability for Ae. aegypti using Maxent (Abdelkrim et al, 2021).…”

Identifying Potential Planting Sites for Three Non-Native Plants to Be Used for Soil Rehabilitation in the Tula Watershed

“…Therefore, climatic and topographic indices as well as soil properties and normalized vegetation indices were included in the model. Since species distribution modeling predictions are based on ideal conditions without considering biological interactions [39], the survival analysis and species distribution modeling were combined in this study to estimate the likelihood of species surviving in potential planting locations within the Tula watershed. The early growth assessment is a crucial phase in any field trial; at this stage, forestry plantations should be given more emphasis [40].…”