Geographical distribution of the incubation period of coffee leaf rust in climate change scenarios

Abstract

The objective of this work was to simulate the geographical distribution of the incubation period of coffee leaf rust in Coffea arabica, using data of two regional climate models, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5. The scenario of high greenhouse gas emission (RCP 8.5 W m-2) was used for the states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, Brazil, for current and future climate scenarios. The behavior of six different regression equations for incubation period (IP), available in the literature, was also analyzed as affected by data from the regional climate models. The results indicate the possibility of an increase in the affected area in the studied region, when the IP is less than 19 days, from 0.5% for Eta-MIROC5 to 14.2% for Eta-HadGEM2-ES. The severity of coffee leaf rust in future scenarios should increase in the hottest and wettest months of the year, extending to the driest and coldest months. The potential of rust infection is estimated differently by the studied equations. In higher temperature scenarios, the Kushalappa & Martins equation indicates a very high severity potential.

Influence of meteorological factors on the relative water content of coffee plants in the field

“…Changes in climatic parameters could lead to changes in the localization of areas apt for coffee cultivation, an increase in pests such as Hypothenemus Hampei more commonly known as the "Coffee borer" in various areas throughout the world (Jaramillo et al, 2011), as well as a greater occurrence of typical coffee plant diseases such as rust (Alfonsi et al, 2019) and morphophysiological changes. Considering the forecast of a future scenario of climate changes with negative consequences for coffee production, initiatives for the mitigation and adaptation are required that aim to assuage the future consequences of climate changes.…”