The aim of the present study was to relate the vegetation cover of Egeria densa to climatic, limnological and diversity variables to gain an understanding of how they affect occurrence and colonization of the macrophyte. This study was conducted in six reservoirs of the Paraíba do Norte River Basin. Six sampling units were established in each reservoir, and the occurrence of vegetation cover of the aquatic plant was verified at three-month intervals. The occurrence was evaluated based on the occurrence of E. densa, and the establishment phase was evaluated based on vegetation cover. The macrophyte was found in three reservoirs and exhibited invasive behavior in two of them. PERMANOVA and logistic regression analyses were performed to understand the occurrence of the species. Precipitation, total dissolved solids and richness were evidenced as the significant variables. PERMANOVA and generalized linear models were used to evaluate the colonization, indicating that precipitation and temperature were determinant factors of the invasion of E. densa. The model generated for occurrence was robust and had a 4.3-fold higher explanatory power than the model of colonization. Results revealed that occurrence is the most important aspect for the successful invasion of E. densa and, once present in an environment, its colonization is probable.