Generalized Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and South—South Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa

Bagnai, Alberto; Rieber, Arsène; Tran, Thi Anh-Dao

doi:10.1057/9781137023957_5

Cited by 4 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 20 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…However, our study fills a number of gaps in the literature. From a theoretical point of view, the analytical framework proposed here improves over previous attempts to extend Thirlwall's law to a multi country setting, by allowing for a more rigorous disaggregation of the BoP constraint among different partner areas (Bagnai et al, 2012). More precisely, we verify the importance of the different channels of transmission involved (real growth, changes in relative prices and import/export market shares).…”

Section: (Insertmentioning

confidence: 69%

“…(Insert Table 7 here) According to IMF projections, growth prospects differ across the partner areas: while the Developing Asia is expected to maintain a high rate (7.8% per year on average), activity in the Northern partners (the RoA, the EU and the US) will remain rather low. The relatively high growth rate in the RoW is attributable to the recent dynamic expansion of South-South trade, providing developing countries with a favourable external economic climate for export expansion (Bagnai et al, 2012). Vietnam is expected to continue growing at a rate of 6.7% per year, which is consistent with the government's target (Table 7).…”

Section: Growth Targets and The Global Economic Turmoilmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…In fact, bilateral deficits are not constrained per se: as a consequence, the aggregate BoP constraint cannot be expressed as an additive function of bilateral balances. Having said this, one can measure however the contribution of partner j variables (either in country i export market or import demand) to changes in the aggregate BoP constraint of country i (see Bagnai et al, 2012).…”

Section: A Multi Country Version Of Thirlwall's Lawmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint in Vietnam

Bagnai

Rieber

Tran

2015

Journal of Post Keynesian Economics

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

UMR DIAL 225 Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny 75775 • Paris Cedex 16 •Tél. (33) 01 44 05 45 42 • Fax (33) 01 44 05 45 45 • 4, rue d'Enghien • 75010 Paris • Tél. AbstractOur paper examines the long run relationship between economic growth and the current account balance equilibrium by relying on the BoP constrained growth model. We find that Vietnam grew less than the rate predicted when the period 1985 to 2010 as a whole is considered, but with different behavior for the 1998-2010 sub-period. The relative price effect is neutral, allowing the volume effects to dominate in setting the BoP constraint. The high income elasticities of exports enable growth in the advanced countries to have a multiplier effect on the Vietnamese economy. However, this effect is hindered by a high 'appetite' for imports coming from Asia. We also assess the impact of the current crisis on Vietnam's growth for the period 2011 to 2017. RésuméEn se basant sur le modèle de croissance contrainte par la balance des paiements, notre papier examine la relation de long terme au Vietnam entre la croissance économique et l'équilibre de la balance courante. Nous trouvons que sur l'ensemble de la période 1985-2010, le Vietnam a connu un taux de croissance inférieur à celui prédit par le modèle, mais avec une évolution divergente sur la souspériode 1998-2010. L'effet des prix relatifs est neutre, amenant les effets volume à prédominer dans la détermination de la contrainte de balance des paiements. Les élasticités de revenu élevées des exportations permettent à la croissance des pays avancés d'exercer un effet multiplicateur sur l'économie Vietnamienne. Cependant, cet effet est contrecarré par un appétit élevé d'importations venant d'Asie. Nous évaluons également l'impact de la crise actuelle sur la croissance du Vietnam pour la période 2011-2017.Mots Clés : Croissance économique, modèle de croissance contrainte par la balance des paiements, modèle multi-pays, Asie, Vietnam.JEL Code: E12, F43, O11, O53.

show abstract

Section: (Insertmentioning

confidence: 69%

Section: Growth Targets and The Global Economic Turmoilmentioning

confidence: 80%

Section: A Multi Country Version Of Thirlwall's Lawmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint in Vietnam

Bagnai

Rieber

Tran

2015

Journal of Post Keynesian Economics

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…82 Almost half of this increase is explained by growth in demand from developing Asia, primarily China. 83 This has facilitated government spending on infrastructure and housing projects, estimated to amount to a total of $ 93 billion in the period 2002-2014. 84 It also financed imports of the capital and intermediate goods necessary for manufacturing production.…”

Section: Graph 4 Cement Consumption and Production (Mt) Angola 2000-mentioning

confidence: 99%

Industrialization in times of China: Domestic-market formation in Angola

Wolf¹

2017

African Affairs

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…1 In fact, a body of the empirical literature advocates the importance of the effect of relative prices on BOPC growth. On the basis of their empirical study, Bagnai, Arséne, and Tran (2012) insisted that the assumption of a constant real exchange rate, routinely made in most studies, is inappropriate. Regarding the effect of relative prices, Soukiazis, Cerqueira, and Antunes (2014) showed that relative prices affect the Italian economic growth, revealing that models without such a price effect underpredict the actual growth rate.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Balance‐of‐payments‐constrained cyclical growth with distributive class conflicts and productivity dynamics

Nishi

2019

Metroeconomica

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study builds a dynamic balance‐of‐payments‐constrained model that incorporates the endogenous determination of the economic growth rate, conflictive wage/price distribution and employment rate. The wages, commodity prices and employment rate are determined by the profit squeeze effect and labour‐saving technical change. The relative strength of these two effects generates different outcomes for the transitional dynamics and comparative statics analysis. Particularly, the model shows stability, instability and cyclical nature, the latter of which concurs with the evidence reported by previous empirical studies.

show abstract

Generalized Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and South—South Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa

Cited by 4 publications

References 20 publications

Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint in Vietnam

Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint in Vietnam

Industrialization in times of China: Domestic-market formation in Angola

Balance‐of‐payments‐constrained cyclical growth with distributive class conflicts and productivity dynamics

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About