Fuzzy Analysis of Macroeconomic Stability

Imanov, Gorkhmaz; Hasanli, Yadulla; Murtuzaeva, Malahat

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-04164-9_31

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 3 publications

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“…The modeling uses the fuzzy sets method, allowing the determination of the influence of not only quantitative factors but also qualitative variables on industry development to operate with linguistic criteria. This enables researchers to significantly improve forecast accuracy and economic phenomenon assessment objectivity [53].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic

Ponkratov

Kuznetsov

Bashkirova

et al. 2020

Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity

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The decrease in the economic activity level around the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic spread has led to a sharp decrease in the crude oil price and provoked an oil war outbreak in the global energy market. The current situation has provoked the need for a total decrease in the crude oil production in the world. Considering that Russia is one of the main oil exporters on the world market, the need to determine the supply and demand levels for Russian oil is becoming relevant. The aim of the paper is to model predictive scenarios of Russian oil industry development, considering the specifics of the current economic environment given the COVID-19 pandemic. The multifactor correlation modeling method was used to form the system of indicators determining the level of demand and supply for Russian oil used and the total level of their influence. The functions determine the probability of implementing various scenarios of oil industry development depending on the predicted values of demand and supply. The three-sigma rule and the fuzzy sets method were used to estimate three scenarios of oil industry development for 2020–2021. Changes in revenues of the industry under the influence of forecast indicators of supply and demand for oil have been assessed and the probability of implementation of each of the scenarios has been reasoned. The results obtained are of a practical nature and can be used by government agencies, financial intermediaries, and scientists to diagnose Russian oil industry development. The results will be useful for oil companies to develop a strategy of open innovations for further design of the scientific information field for the effective functioning of the industry in complete uncertainty conditions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic

Ponkratov

Kuznetsov

Bashkirova

et al. 2020

Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity

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Appoaches to Macroeconomic Stability Assessment

Zolkover

Bozhenko

2020

VSDU

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The rapid development of globalization and convergence processes in the financial sphere, strengthening cooperation between countries in foreign economic activity, digital transformation of economic relations, free movement of labor and liberalization of state regulation inevitably affect the state of macroeconomic stability in the country. Macroeconomic stability is the basis for sustainable economic growth, so its support is one of the most important tasks not only of the central bank, but also of other government regulators and supervisors. To monitor the current state of economic development of the country and identify structural imbalances in the real and financial sectors of the economy, the development of an aggerated indicator becomes objectively necessary. The purpose of this study is to systematize the existing methodological approaches to assessing macroeconomic stability in the country. Methods of induction, analysis, synthesis, comparison were used within the research. The article analyzes the index of macroeconomic stability of individual developed countries and the developing world, calculated by experts from the reinsurance company Swiss Re and the London School of Economics. Analysis of existing methods for assessing macroeconomic stability and its derivatives has identified several approaches: probabilistic (determining the probability of adverse events and phenomena that impair macroeconomic stability), signal (analysis of the market environment based on key indicators and their compliance with threshold values). determination of the deterministic relationship between the selected variables). The obtained results will be of practical value for public authorities and international organizations for the current analysis and adoption of a set of preventive measures to combat crises in the economy. Priority areas for further research are the development of its own methodology for assessing the level of macroeconomic stability of the country, taking into account the presence of transmission effects between participants in the financial and real sectors of the economy.

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Fuzzy Analysis of Macroeconomic Stability

Cited by 2 publications

References 3 publications

Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic

Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic

Appoaches to Macroeconomic Stability Assessment

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