Appoaches to Macroeconomic Stability Assessment

Abstract

The rapid development of globalization and convergence processes in the financial sphere, strengthening cooperation between countries in foreign economic activity, digital transformation of economic relations, free movement of labor and liberalization of state regulation inevitably affect the state of macroeconomic stability in the country. Macroeconomic stability is the basis for sustainable economic growth, so its support is one of the most important tasks not only of the central bank, but also of other government regulators and supervisors. To monitor the current state of economic development of the country and identify structural imbalances in the real and financial sectors of the economy, the development of an aggerated indicator becomes objectively necessary. The purpose of this study is to systematize the existing methodological approaches to assessing macroeconomic stability in the country. Methods of induction, analysis, synthesis, comparison were used within the research. The article analyzes the index of macroeconomic stability of individual developed countries and the developing world, calculated by experts from the reinsurance company Swiss Re and the London School of Economics. Analysis of existing methods for assessing macroeconomic stability and its derivatives has identified several approaches: probabilistic (determining the probability of adverse events and phenomena that impair macroeconomic stability), signal (analysis of the market environment based on key indicators and their compliance with threshold values). determination of the deterministic relationship between the selected variables). The obtained results will be of practical value for public authorities and international organizations for the current analysis and adoption of a set of preventive measures to combat crises in the economy. Priority areas for further research are the development of its own methodology for assessing the level of macroeconomic stability of the country, taking into account the presence of transmission effects between participants in the financial and real sectors of the economy.