Future ozone and oxidants change under the RCP scenarios

Kim, M.J.; Park, Rokjin J.; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Woo, Jung‐Hun; Choi, Ki-Chul; Song, Chang‐Keun; Lee, Jae-Bum

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.11.016

Cited by 43 publications

(41 citation statements)

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“…There is a possibility that patients with AD tried to avoid exposure to O 3 when high levels were detected and announced by the local government. As O 3 will increase by the climate change, particularly during warm regions such as the Korean peninsula [33–36], it is necessary to reduce O 3 level for the management of AD.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-term effects of weather and air pollution on atopic dermatitis symptoms in children: A panel study in Korea

Kim

Han

et al. 2017

PLoS ONE

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IntroductionThe effects of weather and air pollution on the severity and persistence of atopic dermatitis (AD) are important issues that have not been investigated in detail. The objective of our study was to determine the short-term effects of meteorological variables and air pollution on AD symptoms in children.MethodsWe enrolled 177 AD patients with 5 years or younger from the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea, and followed for 17 months between August 2013 and December 2014. Symptoms records of 35,158 person-days, including itching, sleep disturbance, erythema, dry skin, oozing, and edema, were obtained. We estimated the effect of meteorological variables including daily mean temperature, relative humidity (RH), diurnal temperature range (DTR), rainfall and air pollutants including particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and tropospheric ozone (O3) on AD symptoms using a generalized linear mixed model with adjustment for related confounding factors.ResultsA 5°C increase in outdoor temperature and a 5% increase in outdoor RH was associated with 12.8% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 10.5, 15.2) and 3.3% (95% CI: 1.7, 4.7) decrease in AD symptoms, respectively, on the same day. An increase of rainfall by 5 mm increased AD symptoms by 7.3% (95% CI: 3.6, 11.1) for the days with <40 mm rainfall. The risk of AD symptoms increased by 284.9% (95% CI: 67.6, 784.2) according to a 5°C increase in DTR when it was >14°C. An increase in PM10, NO2, and O3 by 10 units increased the risk of AD symptoms on the same day by 3.2% (95% CI: 1.5, 4.9), 5.0% (95% CI: 1.4, 8.8), and 6.1% (95% CI: 3.2, 9.0), respectively.ConclusionExposure to meteorological variables and air pollutants are associated with AD symptoms in young children.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-term effects of weather and air pollution on atopic dermatitis symptoms in children: A panel study in Korea

Kim

Han

et al. 2017

PLoS ONE

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“…A number of global modeling studies have projected future changes in global tropospheric O 3 under the new RCP scenarios [ Kawase et al ., ; Eyring et al ., ; Szopa et al ., ; Young et al ., ; Kim et al ., ; Val Martin et al ., ]. However, these global modeling studies were conducted at coarse spatial resolutions, which often lacked detailed information on regional and local changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future ozone air quality and radiative forcing over China owing to future changes in emissions under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Zhu

Liao

2016

JGR Atmospheres

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We apply the nested grid version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemical transport model (GEOS‐Chem) to assess 2000–2050 changes in O3 air quality and associated radiative forcing in China owing to future changes in emissions under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Changes in surface layer O3 concentrations, numbers of O3 exceedance days (days with maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) O3 exceeding 74.7 ppbv), and tropospheric O3 radiative forcing (RF) are simulated for 2000–2050. Over China, RCP8.5 is the worst scenario for near future (2020–2030) and RCP6.0 is the worst scenario over 2040–2050; the maximum increases in annual mean surface layer O3 concentrations of 6–12 ppbv relative to present day (year 2000) are found over southern China in 2020 and 2030 under RCP8.5 and in 2040 and 2050 under RCP6.0. The numbers of MDA8 O3 exceedance days are simulated to be 10, 0, 0, and 2 days over Beijing‐Tianjin‐Tanggu (BTT), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Pearl River Delta (PRD), and Sichuan Basin (SCB), respectively, in the present day (year 2000). No exceedance days are simulated in year 2050 for all the four regions under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, but extremely high numbers of exceedance days are found in 2050 under RCP6.0 (with 102, 75, 57, and 179 days in BTT, YRD, PRD, and SCB, respectively) and in 2030 under RCP8.5 (with 94, 60, 34, and 162 days in BTT, YRD, PRD, and SCB, respectively). The tropospheric O3 RF in 2050 relative to 2000 averaged over eastern China (18°–45°N, 95°–125°E) is simulated to be −0.11, 0.0, 0.01, and 0.14 W m−2 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. When we consider both the health and climate impacts of tropospheric O3 over China in 2050, RCP2.6 is a significantly improving scenario for both air quality and climate, RCP4.5 is a significantly improving scenario for air quality but has small consequences for climate, RCP6.0 is a significantly worsening scenario for air quality and a slightly worsening scenario for climate, and RCP8.5 is a slightly worsening scenario for air quality and a significantly worsening scenario for climate. These results indicate that to simultaneously abate air pollution and climate warming induced by O3 in China, both the anthropogenic emissions of NOx, CO, nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and global CH4 levels should be reduced, as represented by RCP2.6.

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“…Model studies using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulated both positive and negative changes to surface O 3 and PM concentrations in the 2050s, relative to the 2000s, from the combined effects of changes in emissions and climate (Kirtman et al 2013, Young et al 2013, Kim et al 2015. For O 3 , reductions in global mean surface concentrations are simulated in the 2050s for all RCPs apart from RCP8.5 whereas, global mean PM 2.5 concentrations are predicted to decrease in all scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of climate mitigation measures on near term climate forcers

Turnock

Smith

O’Connor

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Here we quantify the regional co-benefits to future air quality on annual to daily mean timescales from implementing mitigation measures to stabilise future climate. Two consistent future emissions pathways are used within the composition-climate model HadGEM3-UKCA: one is a reference pathway of future economic growth and development (REF), whilst the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) assumes the same development pathway but stabilises anthropogenic radiative forcing at 4.5 W m −2 in 2100. Implementing greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures in RCP4.5 reduces global mean air pollutant emissions by up to 30% in the 2050s, in addition to mitigating climate. Annual mean surface concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5 decrease by 10%-20% from the combined reductions in emissions and climate change. The number of days exceeding the World Health Organization's (WHO) daily mean air quality standards are reduced by up 47 days for ozone and 15 days for PM 2.5 over different world regions. The air quality co-benefits from mitigation measures are mainly achieved from reductions in anthropogenic emissions, although benefits can be offset due to changes in climate. In terms of anthropogenic climate forcing, while the reduction in global mean effective radiative forcing (ERF) in 2050, relative to the 2000s, due to enacting carbon dioxide mitigation measures (−0.43 W m −2 ) is enhanced by decreases in tropospheric ozone (−0.26 W m −2 ) and methane (−0.2 W m −2 ), it is partially offset by a positive aerosol ERF from reductions in aerosols (+0.35 W m −2 ). This study demonstrates that policies to mitigate climate change have added co-benefits for global and regional air quality on annual to daily timescales. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the GHG policies in reducing anthropogenic climate forcing is enhanced in the near-term by reductions in ozone and methane despite the increased forcing due to reductions in aerosols.

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Future ozone and oxidants change under the RCP scenarios

Cited by 43 publications

References 89 publications

Short-term effects of weather and air pollution on atopic dermatitis symptoms in children: A panel study in Korea

Short-term effects of weather and air pollution on atopic dermatitis symptoms in children: A panel study in Korea

Future ozone air quality and radiative forcing over China owing to future changes in emissions under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

The impact of climate mitigation measures on near term climate forcers

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