Future no‐analogue vegetation produced by no‐analogue combinations of temperature and insolation

Abstract

Aim: Projections of future climate change suggest that regional climates may evolve to states that are unlike any climate regime found on Earth today. These climates will impose novel constraints on plant species, and are likely to give rise to plant associations that are compositionally unlike any found on Earth today. Here, we explore whether the geographical distribution of previously mapped no-analogue climates corresponds to the geographical distribution of simulated no-analogue vegetation under scenarios of global warming. Location: Global landmasses. Methods: We used JeDi, a process-based vegetation model that accounts for ecophysiological trade-offs in plant growth and survival, to identify the assembly of plant functional types into no-analogue associations under scenarios of global warming. We compared the geographical distribution of these no-analogue vegetation types with those of no-analogue climates derived from seasonal temperature and precipitation. To better understand the climatic causes that lead to no-analogue vegetation, we performed a set of JeDi simulation experiments and compared them, as well as selected climate indices, with the geographical distribution of no-analogue vegetation. Finally, we explored the changes in plant characteristics leading to no-analogue vegetation composition. Results: In our model simulations, a no-analogue vegetation type emerged in Northern Eurasia due to the interacting effects of rising temperatures and the prolongation of the growing season, combined with stable patterns in the seasonal insolation cycle. Future tropical biomes experiencing novel temperature and precipitation regimes however, resemble contemporary vegetation despite significant losses of plant diversity. Main conclusions: Our modelling study shows how no-analogue vegetation can emerge in response to novel climates produced by rising temperatures and stable insolation, while also suggesting that no-analogue climates do not necessarily lead to no-analogue vegetation types. This result underlines the importance of considering plant diversity and the need to integrate ecophysiological knowledge through process-orientated models when projecting future vegetation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Calakmul como refugio de Swietenia macrophylla King ante el cambio climático

“…Por ejemplo, Rehfeldt et al (2012) proyecta para la Península de Yucatán climas propicios para biomas sin un análogo contemporáneo (en otras palabras, climas que no existen en la actualidad), debido a la interacción del incremento de las temperaturas y disminución de la precipitación debido al cambio climático. La predicción de climas no análogos en el futuro ha sido predicha también para el norte de Eurasia -debido a la prolongación de la temporada de crecimiento (Reu et al, 2014), y para diversos biomas de los Andes Tropicales (Tovar et al, 2013), con pérdidas de más del 30 % de la superficie actual. Reserva de la Biosfera Calakmul como refugio ex situ.…”

Arctic biodiversity: increasing richness accompanies shrinking refugia for a cold‐associated tundra fauna

“…Comparative studies of resident high latitude species are providing key perspectives on community dynamics in the north (Eidesen et al 2013, Reu et al 2014. Our synthesis explored hypothesized responses to climate change among northern mammals and inferred the direction, tempo, and extent of responses based on statistical integration of contemporary distributions, fossil locations, abiotic climate variables, and genetic sequences.…”

“…However, the most recent Wisconsinan glacial cycle (;110-11 ka) was distinctive because humans became an integral part of the biosphere, significantly influencing wildlife abundance and distribution through hunting and land-use changes (Duerden 2004, Cook et al 2006, Bellard et al 2012. Atmospheric changes and associated climate warming of the Anthropocene have surpassed levels of previous Quaternary interglacial maxima, and in the future the northern high latitudes will be characterized by novel environments (Overland et al 2013, Reu et al 2014. In addition to global-scale climate changes, Arctic amplification is prevalent at northern high-latitudes and is also accompanied by increased localized activities related to industrial development, harvest of biological resources, science, and tourism (Duerden 2004, Hinzman et al 2005, Raynolds et al 2014.…”

Modelling Biome Shifts in the Indian Subcontinent under Scenarios of Future Climate Change

“…At the same time, several recent studies have also attempted to predict future shifts in the potential distribution of biomes under different scenarios of climate change [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29] . Such projections of biome or vegetation shifts in response to climate change are typically based on one of two alternate approaches -bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs) or process-based dynamic global vegetation modelsDGVMs 13,19,22,27,[29][30][31][32][33][34] . BEMs assume that vegetationclimate relationships are static, and rely on correlations between climatic variables and current vegetation distributions to predict future distributions 27,32,33 .…”

“…In this study, we adopt a bioclimatic envelope modelling approach to predict the future distribution of potential vegetation types across the Indian subcontinent under different scenarios of climate change. Assessments of potential biome shifts in response to 21st century climate change have been carried out for individual biomes 26 , as well as multiple biome types at global 19,29,34 43,44 and regional scales 45 . However, these earlier efforts have been either based on limited climate change scenarios 45 , or under scenarios where increases in temperature and proportional increases in rainfall are the same across the entire subcontinent 46 , or have modelled the potential distribution of vegetation types based on outputs from a single regional climate Model (e.g.…”