Modelling Biome Shifts in the Indian Subcontinent under Scenarios of Future Climate Change

Rasquinha, Dina N.; Sankaran, Mahesh

doi:10.18520/cs/v111/i1/147-156

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 59 publications

(97 reference statements)

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“…Shifts in patterns of water availability during the monsoon, along with predicted changes in total rainfall, seasonality and spatial variability of rainfall [122][123][124] will likely have large impacts on the structure and dynamics of Asian savannahs over the coming decades. A recent analysis for South Asia finds that for an ensemble of projected climate scenarios, the savannahs of the Indian subcontinent will likely show large losses in their geographical extent, as the drier areas they now occupy are replaced by higher rainfall regimes [125]. Likewise, climate models predict increasing rainfall over East Asia (IPCC 2013 report, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/), with the potential to shift these savannahs towards densely wooded states from where they may transition to forest ecosystems.…”

Section: Uncertain Futures For Savannahs In Asiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Savannahs of Asia: antiquity, biogeography, and an uncertain future

Ratnam

Tomlinson

Rasquinha

et al. 2016

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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152

200

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The savannahs of Asia remain locally unrecognized as distinctive ecosystems, and continue to be viewed as degraded forests or seasonally dry tropical forests. These colonial-era legacies are problematic, because they fail to recognize the unique diversity of Asian savannahs and the critical roles of fire and herbivory in maintaining ecosystem health and diversity. In this review, we show that: the palaeo-historical evidence suggests that the savannahs of Asia have existed for at least 1 million years, long before widespread landscape modification by humans; savannah regions across Asia have levels of C 4 grass endemism and diversity that are consistent with area-based expectations for non-Asian savannahs; there are at least three distinct Asian savannah communities, namely deciduous broadleaf savannahs, deciduous fine-leafed and spiny savannahs and evergreen pine savannahs, with distinct functional ecologies consistent with fire-and herbivory-driven community assembly. Via an analysis of savannah climate domains on other continents, we map the potential extent of savannahs across Asia. We find that the climates of African savannahs provide the closest analogues for those of Asian deciduous savannahs, but that Asian pine savannahs occur in climates different to any of the savannahs in the southern continents. Finally, we review major threats to the persistence of savannahs in Asia, including the mismanagement of fire and herbivory, alien woody encroachment, afforestation policies and future climate uncertainty associated with the changing Asian monsoon. Research agendas that target these issues are urgently needed to manage and conserve these ecosystems.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'.

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Section: Uncertain Futures For Savannahs In Asiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Savannahs of Asia: antiquity, biogeography, and an uncertain future

Ratnam

Tomlinson

Rasquinha

et al. 2016

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

Self Cite

152

200

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“…In this study, we used a Random Forest algorithm to correlatively model tree cover using climatic, edaphic and anthropogenic data in Central Africa. This type of model has previously been used to model tree cover in all sub-Saharan Africa 14 and to model biome shifts in the Indian subcontinent with high accuracy 41 . The model obtained here also predicted tree cover very accurately, without spatial auto-correlation, highlighting a strong hierarchy of the predictors in our study area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Variable importance can be evaluated based on how much worse the prediction would be if the data for that predictor were permuted randomly; it is thus possible to rank predictors based on their relative importance 82 . This type of models has been previously used to predict the impact of climate change on vegetation and biome distribution with good results 14 41 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree cover in Central Africa: determinants and sensitivity under contrasted scenarios of global change

Aleman

Blarquez

Gourlet‐Fleury

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

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Tree cover is a key variable for ecosystem functioning, and is widely used to study tropical ecosystems. But its determinants and their relative importance are still a matter of debate, especially because most regional and global analyses have not considered the influence of agricultural practices. More information is urgently needed regarding how human practices influence vegetation structure. Here we focused in Central Africa, a region still subjected to traditional agricultural practices with a clear vegetation gradient. Using remote sensing data and global databases, we calibrated a Random Forest model to correlatively link tree cover with climatic, edaphic, fire and agricultural practices data. We showed that annual rainfall and accumulated water deficit were the main drivers of the distribution of tree cover and vegetation classes (defined by the modes of tree cover density), but agricultural practices, especially pastoralism, were also important in determining tree cover. We simulated future tree cover with our model using different scenarios of climate and land-use (agriculture and population) changes. Our simulations suggest that tree cover may respond differently regarding the type of scenarios, but land-use change was an important driver of vegetation change even able to counterbalance the effect of climate change in Central Africa.

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“…Large areas of this biome have already become wooded because of introduction of invasive species such as Prosopis. The wetting trend predicted by most climate models will further shrink this biome (Rasquinha and Sankaran 2016). However, the presence of Prosopis also alerts us to the fact that anthropogenic influences may in some places exacerbate and in other places limit the influence of climate change.…”

Section: Possible Impacts On Forestsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…More recent studies that use more sophisticated regional climate models and process-based vegetation models suggest that over 70 per cent of India's forests would shift towards moister forest types 6 Biomes are 'distinct biological communities that have formed in response to a shared physical climate' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Biome). One popular classification of world biomes recognizes 11 major biomes in India (the World Wildlife Fund ecoregions maps, quoted in Rasquinha and Sankaran [2016]). under enhanced CO 2 levels and future climate (Chaturvedi et al 2011;Ravindranath, Sukumar, and Saxena 2006).…”

Section: Possible Impacts On Forestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and India’s Forests

Lélé¹,

Krishnaswamy²

2019

India in a Warming World

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Forests influence, and are impacted by, climate in multiple ways. India has pledged to sequester 2.5–3 gigatonne of carbon dioxide equivalent in its forests by 2030. As per official estimates, India already has a positive carbon sequestration rate, suggesting that little extra effort is required to achieve this target, but these estimates are debated. Prioritizing carbon sequestration can also adversely affect local livelihoods, biodiversity, and hydrological regulation functions. Moreover, the mechanisms through which the state hopes to achieve this target do not take into consideration the history of conflict and ongoing shifts in forest governance. The influence of forests on regional climate, especially rainfall, further complicates this debate. Climate change will, in turn, influence India’s forests in complex and unclear ways: a possible expansion of the moist broadleaf forests in central India and a shrinking of temperate broadleaf and alpine forests; a possible increase in productivity; and decline in some wildlife species in specific habitats.

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Modelling Biome Shifts in the Indian Subcontinent under Scenarios of Future Climate Change

Cited by 9 publications

References 59 publications

Savannahs of Asia: antiquity, biogeography, and an uncertain future

Savannahs of Asia: antiquity, biogeography, and an uncertain future

Tree cover in Central Africa: determinants and sensitivity under contrasted scenarios of global change

Climate Change and India’s Forests

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