Future Drought Projection for the Greek Region

Αnagnostopoulou, Christina

doi:10.12681/bgsg.11808

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Previous studies in the region of Thessaly investigated the impact of drought to assess stress on crop yields and to evaluate the effectiveness of drought on crop yield assessment [53,54]. Other studies have used the SPI and other drought indices to investigate the frequency and severity of drought events, as well as to identify the most vulnerable regions to drought, especially in Greece [5,[55][56][57][58]. More recently, Anagnostopoulou [58], Paparizos et al [59], Georgoulias et al [60], and Politi et al [61] have attempted a future projection using the SPI under different climate conditions, whereas Kourgialas [62] used the SPI for the study of hydrological extremes in the region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other studies have used the SPI and other drought indices to investigate the frequency and severity of drought events, as well as to identify the most vulnerable regions to drought, especially in Greece [5,[55][56][57][58]. More recently, Anagnostopoulou [58], Paparizos et al [59], Georgoulias et al [60], and Politi et al [61] have attempted a future projection using the SPI under different climate conditions, whereas Kourgialas [62] used the SPI for the study of hydrological extremes in the region. The necessity of the current research is dictated by the frequent advent of drought events in the study area which is the largest agricultural region of the country affecting the primary cultivation crops (e.g., cotton; wheat; corn) of Thessaly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal Drought Assessment Based on Gridded Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

Sakellariou,

Spiliotopoulos,

Alpanakis

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Drought is one of the most critical environmental hazards for the viability and productive development of crops, especially in a climate change environment. To this end, drought assessment is a process of paramount importance to make vulnerable agricultural regions more resilient. The primary aim of this paper is an integrated drought assessment through time and space in one of the most susceptible (in terms of water availability limitations) and agriculturally productive regions in Greece and the Mediterranean, namely, the Thessaly region. Supplementary objectives consist of the determination of the two most extreme years in terms of drought and wetness, so that we may reveal any potential climatological cycles/patterns from 1981 to 2020. Additionally, the methodology includes the annual and seasonal analysis using one of the most widely used drought indices, namely, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), so that consistent measurements are available across a large study area, avoiding the possible scarcity/deficiency of data coming from a sparse land weather network. The innovative element of this paper is the integrated spatiotemporal drought assessment in multiple time scales through the estimation of the SPI making use of remotely sensed data, such as CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data). The outcomes highlight that the study area faced two severe years of drought in 1988 and 1989, which led to moderate and extreme drought conditions, respectively. In contrast, extremely wet conditions were observed in 2002–2003, whereas 2009–2010 experienced moderately wet conditions. The central and western part of the region tends to suffer the most in terms of drought severity, especially at the most extreme years. The validity of the results has been confirmed by the adoption of R2 where the index is approaching 0.67 despite the large size of the pixels (5 × 5 km). In this context, the mapping of spatial and seasonal variability across the study area permits more targeted measures (e.g., precision farming) instead of horizontal policies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Drought Assessment Based on Gridded Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

Sakellariou,

Spiliotopoulos,

Alpanakis

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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High resolution projections for extreme temperatures and precipitation over Greece

et al. 2022

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The present study investigated future temperature and precipitation changes over Greece using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF was driven by EC-EARTH over Greece at very high resolution for the historical period (1980–2004), along with projected simulations, in the near future (2025–2049) and far future (2075–2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). Climatic variables were produced at 5-km grid spacing and 6-h interval. The historical simulation was evaluated against the available station observations. The analysis showed that the model underestimated the maximum temperatures and slightly overestimated the minimum temperatures. Also, the model simulated a small dry bias in precipitation with an excellent representation of the spatial patterns. The model projections for temperature under the two emission scenarios compared to the historical simulation revealed a robust magnitude of future warming with the most pronounced changes predominantly over the eastern areas of the country under the RCP8.5 in the far future. Projected precipitation changes were more evident in the far future with an overall decrease of the annual precipitation all over the eastern part of the country (with islands included) with the most dramatic reductions (above 40%) of seasonal precipitation observed under RCP8.5. Increases in the number of hot days were found everywhere with more pronounced changes over the plain areas under RCP8.5 in the far future. Significant increases of dry days were projected over the eastern part of the mainland and more intensely under RCP8.5 in the far future.

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High Resolution Future Projections of Drought Characteristics in Greece Based on SPI and SPEI Indices

et al. 2022

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Future changes in drought characteristics in Greece were investigated using dynamically downscaled high-resolution simulations of 5 km. The Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were driven by EC-EARTH output for historical and future periods, under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. For the drought analysis, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were calculated. This work contributed to achieve an improved characterization of the expected high-resolution changes of drought in Greece. Overall, the results indicate that Greece will face severe drought conditions in the upcoming years, particularly under RCP8.5, up to 8/5 y of severity change signal. The results of 6-month timescale indices suggest that more severe and prolonged drought events are expected with an increase of 4 months/5 y, particularly in areas of central and eastern part of the country in near future, and areas of the western parts in far future. The indices obtained in a 12-month timescale for the period 2075–2099 and under RCP8.5 have shown an increase in the mean duration of drought events along the entire country. Drought conditions will be more severe in lowland areas of agricultural interest (e.g., Thessaly and Crete).

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Future Drought Projection for the Greek Region

Abstract: Drought is one of the most important factors of change. The epi-drops drought in one

Cited by 3 publications

References 11 publications

Spatiotemporal Drought Assessment Based on Gridded Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

Spatiotemporal Drought Assessment Based on Gridded Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

High resolution projections for extreme temperatures and precipitation over Greece

High Resolution Future Projections of Drought Characteristics in Greece Based on SPI and SPEI Indices

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