High resolution projections for extreme temperatures and precipitation over Greece

Abstract

The present study investigated future temperature and precipitation changes over Greece using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF was driven by EC-EARTH over Greece at very high resolution for the historical period (1980–2004), along with projected simulations, in the near future (2025–2049) and far future (2075–2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). Climatic variables were produced at 5-km grid spacing and 6-h interval. The historical simulation was evaluated against the available station observations. The analysis showed that the model underestimated the maximum temperatures and slightly overestimated the minimum temperatures. Also, the model simulated a small dry bias in precipitation with an excellent representation of the spatial patterns. The model projections for temperature under the two emission scenarios compared to the historical simulation revealed a robust magnitude of future warming with the most pronounced changes predominantly over the eastern areas of the country under the RCP8.5 in the far future. Projected precipitation changes were more evident in the far future with an overall decrease of the annual precipitation all over the eastern part of the country (with islands included) with the most dramatic reductions (above 40%) of seasonal precipitation observed under RCP8.5. Increases in the number of hot days were found everywhere with more pronounced changes over the plain areas under RCP8.5 in the far future. Significant increases of dry days were projected over the eastern part of the mainland and more intensely under RCP8.5 in the far future.

Investigation of Fire Weather Danger under a Changing Climate at High Resolution in Greece

“…Moreover, the latter study indicated that higher increases were obtained for RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5, particularly for most areas of the Natura 2000 network (including archaeological sites or sites of natural beauty with intense touristic load). The overall results derived from the analysis of the FWI, the ISI and the number of days threshold-based indices conform with the expected changes in temperature and precipitation, assessed in the latest studies [52,60]. Accordingly, seasonal precipitation changes, particularly during spring and summer will notably be decreased in the eastern and northern mainland in the near future under RCP4.5 and in the far future under RCP8.5.…”

“…Fi-nally, to study future projections (2025-2049 and 2075-2099), we applied high-resolution downscaling (5 km) using the WRF model driven by the global climate model EC-Earth setting the historical period 1980-2004 as a control run. The historical model simulations were found in good agreement with the observational data [52]. Downscaled wind and solar variables were also evaluated against observations using statistical analyses in the studies of Katopodis et al [53,54].…”

How Accurate Climate Information Can Help the Climate Adaptation in Regional Scale: The Case Study of Sitia

“…For the need of climate risk assessment study for the area of Sitia indices were estimated related to extreme events, drought, and fire danger. The tion and methodology of the calculation of these indices is extensively described et al, 2022a, 2022b, 2023 [8,16,17].…”

“…This work is linked to a previous study [8] which derived fine resolution for Greece by downscaling EC-EARTH GCM data to 5 km, being unique in thi The focus of this paper is the development of high-resolution climate data base mate change projections of temperature, precipitation, and the indices of SPI a using RCPs scenarios [9] and the selection of suitable indicators for these par that were further used in stakeholder engagement activities. These were co-p with the local community, allowing them to gain a better understanding of the temporal characteristics of the local climate.…”

Investigation of Climate Change Impacts on the Building Materials of Archeological Monuments

“…Therefore, an important goal is the study of the crystallization conditions and weathering mechanisms that can lead to the development of mitigation measures for the preservation of archeological buildings, taking into consideration also possible effects of Climate Change. In this work, we study on a daily basis the occurrence of relative humidity (RH) and temperature (T) conditions that affect the crystallization of salt ions, adopting daily gridded modeled climate data produced by dynamically downscaled high-resolution simulations of 5 km [6]. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional model driven by the Global Circulation Model EC-EARTH has provided extensively validated data used in the current study, for the historical and future periods (2025-2049 and 2075-2099), under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 [7][8][9].…”