High Resolution Future Projections of Drought Characteristics in Greece Based on SPI and SPEI Indices

Abstract

Future changes in drought characteristics in Greece were investigated using dynamically downscaled high-resolution simulations of 5 km. The Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were driven by EC-EARTH output for historical and future periods, under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. For the drought analysis, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were calculated. This work contributed to achieve an improved characterization of the expected high-resolution changes of drought in Greece. Overall, the results indicate that Greece will face severe drought conditions in the upcoming years, particularly under RCP8.5, up to 8/5 y of severity change signal. The results of 6-month timescale indices suggest that more severe and prolonged drought events are expected with an increase of 4 months/5 y, particularly in areas of central and eastern part of the country in near future, and areas of the western parts in far future. The indices obtained in a 12-month timescale for the period 2075–2099 and under RCP8.5 have shown an increase in the mean duration of drought events along the entire country. Drought conditions will be more severe in lowland areas of agricultural interest (e.g., Thessaly and Crete).

Climate change impacts on spatial and seasonal meteorological drought characteristics for the island of Ireland

“…SPEI indicates increased drying in comparison to SPI, highlighting the importance of evaporative losses in assessments of future drought risk, especially for drought magnitude in spring and summer. Similar findings have been reported for the UK and Europe (Ionita & Nagavciuc, 2021; Politi et al, 2022; Reyniers et al, 2023; Stagge et al, 2017). Even the direction of change in spring drought magnitude (assessed using a 3‐month accumulation period) depends on whether SPI or SPEI is employed, with the former showing decreases in magnitude and the latter increases, highlighting the importance of changes in evaporative losses to future drought impacts (Vicente‐Serrano et al, 2020).…”

Investigation of Fire Weather Danger under a Changing Climate at High Resolution in Greece

“…Moreover, the latter study indicated that higher increases were obtained for RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5, particularly for most areas of the Natura 2000 network (including archaeological sites or sites of natural beauty with intense touristic load). The overall results derived from the analysis of the FWI, the ISI and the number of days threshold-based indices conform with the expected changes in temperature and precipitation, assessed in the latest studies [52,60]. Accordingly, seasonal precipitation changes, particularly during spring and summer will notably be decreased in the eastern and northern mainland in the near future under RCP4.5 and in the far future under RCP8.5.…”

How Accurate Climate Information Can Help the Climate Adaptation in Regional Scale: The Case Study of Sitia

“…For the need of climate risk assessment study for the area of Sitia indices were estimated related to extreme events, drought, and fire danger. The tion and methodology of the calculation of these indices is extensively described et al, 2022a, 2022b, 2023 [8,16,17].…”

“…The future SPI's projections, that were calculated as in [16], show in the RCP4.5 sce nario of near-future projection (Figure 4C) that the inland demonstrates a near-zero in crease in duration of drought, reaching the highest peak both in the center and the east ern coast of Sitia's Municipality (5.5 months) of the prefecture. It is pointed out that in many areas no change is noticeable.…”