Further Improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

Abstract

A verification of the SHIPS operational intensity forecasts is presented. Results show that the 1997-2003 SHIPS forecasts had statistically significant skill (relative to climatology and persistence) out to 72 h in the Atlantic, and at 48 and 72 h in the east Pacific. The inclusion of the land effects reduced the intensity errors by up to 15% in the Atlantic, and up to 3% in the east Pacific, primarily for the shorter-range forecasts. The inclusion of land effects did not significantly degrade the forecasts at any time period. Results also showed that the 4-5-day forecasts that began in 2001 did not have skill in the Atlantic, but had some skill in the east Pacific.An experimental version of SHIPS that included satellite observations was tested during the 2002 and 2003 seasons. New predictors included brightness temperature information from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) channel 4 (10.7 m) imagery, and oceanic heat content (OHC) estimates inferred from satellite altimetry observations. The OHC estimates were only available for the Atlantic basin. The GOES data significantly improved the east Pacific forecasts by up to 7% at 12-72 h. The combination of GOES and satellite altimetry improved the Atlantic forecasts by up to 3.5% through 72 h for those storms west of 50°W.

Southern hemisphere tropical cyclone intensity forecast methods used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part II: statistical-dynamical forecasts

“…The development of the SH STIPS model closely follows the development of the STIPS model in the western North Pacific tropical cyclone basins , but incorporates some additional low-level thermodynamic predictors similar to those used by DeMaria et al (2005). SH STIPS is a multiple linear regression model.…”

Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation

“…The K08 procedure involved two steps-a screening step and then a linear discriminant analysis step-that used environmental values from satellite infrared imagery and analyses from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS; DeMaria et al 2005) model to identify a subset of tropical cyclones known as annular hurricanes. Since the present study also seeks to discriminate between two groups-TC formation and nonformation casesbased on environmental conditions, the same two-step methodology is used.…”

A Study of Dust Aerosols Impact on Hurricanes with Multi-Sensors Measurement from Space

“…On the left side of the storm, the net winds move southward at approximately 93 mph [15]. Despite satellite observations and numerical weather predictions that have advanced the forecasting of hurricane tracks over the last two decades, there have been few improvements in forecasting hurricane strengths [16]. Hurricanes intensify when there is more precipitation in the atmosphere and surface moisture differences are the significant contributor to intensity forecast differences, while convective instability differences play a less significant role [17].…”