The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) databases are employed to examine the large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In this study, rapid intensification (RI) is defined as approximately the 95th percentile of over-water 24-h intensity changes of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that developed from 1989 to 2000. This equates to a maximum sustained surface wind speed increase of 15.4 m s 1 (30 kt) over a 24-h period. It is shown that 31% of all tropical cyclones, 60% of all hurricanes, 83% of all major hurricanes, and all category 4 and 5 hurricanes underwent RI at least once during their lifetimes. The mean initial (t 0 h) conditions of cases that undergo RI are compared to those of the non-RI cases. These comparisons show that the RI cases form farther south and west and have a more westward component of motion than the non-RI cases. In addition, the RI cases are typically intensifying at a faster rate during the previous 12 h than the non-RI cases. The statistical analysis also shows that the RI cases are further from their maximum potential intensity and form in regions with warmer SSTs and higher lower-tropospheric relative humidity than the non-RI cases. The RI cases are also embedded in regions where the upper-level flow is more easterly and the vertical shear and upper-level forcing from troughs or cold lows is weaker than is observed for the non-RI cases. Finally, the RI cases tend to move with the flow within a higher layer of the atmosphere than the non-RI cases. A simple technique for estimating the probability of RI is described. Estimates of the probability of RI are determined using the predictors for which statistically significant differences are found between the RI and non-RI cases. Estimates of the probability of RI are also determined by combining the five predictors that had the highest individual probabilities of RI. The probability of RI increases from 1% to 41% when the total number of thresholds satisfied increases from zero to five. This simple technique was used in real time for the first time during the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season as part of the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT).

Real-time forecasts of five landfalling Atlantic hurricanes during 2005 using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) (ARW) Model at grid spacings of 12 and 4 km revealed performance generally competitive with, and occasionally superior to, other operational forecasts for storm position and intensity. Recurring errors include 1) excessive intensification prior to landfall, 2) insufficient momentum exchange with the surface, and 3) inability to capture rapid intensification when observed. To address these errors several augmentations of the basic community model have been designed and tested as part of what is termed the Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) model. Based on sensitivity simulations of Katrina, the inner-core structure, particularly the size of the eye, was found to be sensitive to model resolution and surface momentum exchange. The forecast of rapid intensification and the structure of convective bands in Katrina were not significantly improved until the grid spacing approached 1 km. Coupling the atmospheric model to a columnar, mixed layer ocean model eliminated much of the erroneous intensification of Katrina prior to landfall noted in the real-time forecast.

A verification of the SHIPS operational intensity forecasts is presented. Results show that the 1997-2003 SHIPS forecasts had statistically significant skill (relative to climatology and persistence) out to 72 h in the Atlantic, and at 48 and 72 h in the east Pacific. The inclusion of the land effects reduced the intensity errors by up to 15% in the Atlantic, and up to 3% in the east Pacific, primarily for the shorter-range forecasts. The inclusion of land effects did not significantly degrade the forecasts at any time period. Results also showed that the 4-5-day forecasts that began in 2001 did not have skill in the Atlantic, but had some skill in the east Pacific.An experimental version of SHIPS that included satellite observations was tested during the 2002 and 2003 seasons. New predictors included brightness temperature information from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) channel 4 (10.7 m) imagery, and oceanic heat content (OHC) estimates inferred from satellite altimetry observations. The OHC estimates were only available for the Atlantic basin. The GOES data significantly improved the east Pacific forecasts by up to 7% at 12-72 h. The combination of GOES and satellite altimetry improved the Atlantic forecasts by up to 3.5% through 72 h for those storms west of 50°W.

A revised rapid intensity index (RII) is developed for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. The RII uses large-scale predictors from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) to estimate the probability of rapid intensification (RI) over the succeeding 24 h utilizing linear discriminant analysis. Separate versions of the RII are developed for the 25-, 30-, and 35-kt RI thresholds, which represent the 90th (88th), 94th (92nd), and 97th (94th) percentiles of 24-h overwater intensity changes of tropical and subtropical cyclones in the Atlantic (eastern North Pacific) basins from 1989 to 2006, respectively. The revised RII became operational at the NHC prior to the 2008 hurricane season. The relative importance of the individual RI predictors is shown to differ between the two basins. Specifically, the previous 12-h intensity change, upper-level divergence, and vertical shear have the highest weights for the Atlantic basin, while the previous 12-h intensity change, symmetry of inner-core convection, and the difference in a system’s current and maximum potential intensity are weighted highest in the eastern North Pacific basin. A verification of independent forecasts from the 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons shows that the probabilistic RII forecasts are generally skillful in both basins when compared to climatology. Moreover, when employed in a deterministic manner, the RII forecasts were superior to all other available operational intensity guidance in terms of the probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR). Specifically, the POD for the RII ranged from 15% to 59% (53% to 73%) while the FAR ranged from 71% to 85% (53% to 79%) in the Atlantic (eastern North Pacific) basins, respectively, for the three RI thresholds studied. Nevertheless, the modest POD and relatively high FAR of the RII and other intensity guidance demonstrate the difficulty of predicting RI, particularly in the Atlantic basin.

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Contrary to what is often reported in the literature, tropical cyclone intensity forecast models have improved over the past two decades at a rate that is statistically significant.

Previous work, in which Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data from the Atlantic Ocean and east Pacific Ocean basins during 1999–2001 were used to provide objective estimates of 1-min maximum sustained surface winds, minimum sea level pressure, and the radii of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt (1 kt ≡ 0.5144 m s−1) winds in the northeast, southeast, southwest, and northwest quadrants of tropical cyclones, is updated to reflect larger datasets, improved statistical analysis techniques, and improved estimation through dependent variable transforms. A multiple regression approach, which utilizes best-subset predictor selection and cross validation, is employed to develop the estimation models, where the dependent data (i.e., maximum sustained winds, minimum pressure, wind radii) are from the extended best track and the independent data consist of AMSU-derived parameters that give information about retrieved pressure, winds, temperature, moisture, and satellite resolution. The developmental regression models result in mean absolute errors (MAE) of 10.8 kt and 7.8 hPa for estimating maximum winds and minimum pressure, respectively. The MAE for the 34-, 50-, and 64-kt azimuthally averaged wind radii are 16.9, 13.3, and 6.8 n mi (1 n mi ≡ 1852 m), respectively.

Updates to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic basin are described. SHIPS combines climatological, persistence, and synoptic predictors to forecast intensity changes using a multiple regression technique. The original version of the model was developed for the Atlantic basin and was run in near-real time at the Hurricane Research Division beginning in 1993. In 1996, the model was incorporated into the National Hurricane Center operational forecast cycle, and a version was developed for the eastern North Pacific basin. Analysis of the forecast errors for the period 1993-96 shows that SHIPS had little skill relative to forecasts based upon climatology and persistence. However, SHIPS had significant skill in both the Atlantic and east Pacific basins during the 1997 hurricane season. The regression coefficients for SHIPS were rederived after each hurricane season since 1993 so that the previous season's forecast cases were included in the sample. Modifications to the model itself were also made after each season. Prior to the 1997 season, the synoptic predictors were determined only from an analysis at the beginning of the forecast period. Thus, SHIPS could be considered a ''statistical-synoptic'' model. For the 1997 season, methods were developed to remove the tropical cyclone circulation from the global model analyses and to include synoptic predictors from forecast fields, so the current version of SHIPS is a ''statisticaldynamical'' model. It was only after the modifications for 1997 that the model showed significant intensity forecast skill.