Frequency Analysis of High Flow Extremes in the Yingluoxia Watershed in Northwest China

Li, Zhanling; Wang, Yuehua; Zhao, Wei; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Zhanjie

doi:10.3390/w8050215

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The mountainous regions in inland river basins are very sensitive to climate change [22][23][24]. We choose the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin (HRB) as the study area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Variation in Water Balance Components in Mountainous Inland River Basin Experiencing Climate Change

Yin

Feng

Zou

et al. 2016

Water

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Abstract:Quantification of the changes of water balance components is significant for water resource assessment and management. This paper employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the water balance in a mountainous watershed in northwest China at different spatial scales over the past half century. The results showed that both Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and determination coefficient (R 2 ) were over 0.90 for the calibration and validation periods. The water balance components presented rising trends at the watershed scale, and the total runoff increased by 30.5% during 1964 to 2013 period. Rising surface runoff and rising groundwater flow contributed 42.7% and 57.3% of the total rising runoff, respectively. The runoff coefficient was sensitive to increasing precipitation and was not significant to the increase of temperature. The alpine meadow was the main landscape which occupied 51.1% of the watershed and contributed 55.5% of the total runoff. Grass land, forest land, bare land, and glacier covered 14.2%, 18.8%, 15.4%, and 0.5% of the watershed and contributed 8.5%, 16.9%, 15.9%, and 3.2% of the total runoff, respectively. The elevation zone from 3500 to 4500 m occupied 66.5% of the watershed area, and contributed the majority of the total runoff (70.7%). The runoff coefficients in the elevation zone from 1637 to 2800 m, 2800 to 3500 m, 3500 to 4000 m, 4000 to 4500 m, and 4500 to 5062 m were 0.20, 0.27, 0.32, 0.43, and 0.78, respectively, which tend to be larger along with the elevation increase. The quantities and change trends of the water balance components at the watershed scale were calculated by the results of the sub-watersheds. Furthermore, we characterized the spatial distribution of quantities and changes in trends of water balance components at the sub-watershed scale analysis. This study provides some references for water resource management and planning in inland river basins.

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“…The mountainous regions in inland river basins are very sensitive to climate change [22][23][24]. We choose the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin (HRB) as the study area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Variation in Water Balance Components in Mountainous Inland River Basin Experiencing Climate Change

Yin

Feng

Zou

et al. 2016

Water

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“…Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) is one of the most practical statistical methods to analyze the relationship between the magnitude of extreme runoff or river flow events to their frequency of occurrence (Curceac et al, 2020). Hydrologists commonly apply two approaches to perform FFA, annual (block) maximum (AM) and peaks-over threshold (POT) (Engeland et al 2004;Coles et al 2001;Rao and Hamed 1999;Lang et al 1999;Rosbjerg et al 1992;Karim et al 2017;Li et al 2016). In AM method, a sample series is considered by choosing the largest discharge value of each year.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Automated Threshold selection methods and Flood Frequency Analysis of Hydrological extremes.

Ghaleh

Rezaie

Ghorbani

2023

Preprint

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Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) is a popular approach providing important information about the frequency of future extreme values. Employing this information can be very effective for better planning, design, and operation of flood protection defenses, which leads to more reliable watershed management. The present study, considering Haji-Ghoshan, Ghouchmaz, and Ghareh-Shour hydrometric stations of the Gorgan Roud River basin as the study area, examined the behavior of six different GPD parameter estimators using Monte-Carlo simulations, compares three automated threshold selection techniques based on POT and finally evaluates the performance of each threshold selection methods using NRMSE and relative index of agreement. The results indicate that in all stations the SE method provided smaller thresholds than other threshold selection techniques. Short tail distribution is provided for the normality of differences method in in Haji-Ghoshan and Ghouchmaz stations. The SE, MAX PV, and Cramer-von Mises/Kolmogorov-Smirnov methods provided the optimum thresholds based on\({r_d}\)and NRMSE in Haji-Ghoshan, Ghouchmaz and Ghareh-Shour stations, respectively.

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“…Although several studies have compared the POT and BM methods for extreme value analyses, the comparison has been made on a limited historical time series in a small area (e.g., Jaruskova and Hanek, 2006;Li et al, 2016Vrban et al, 2018). It remains to determine the extent to which climate change results for extreme events on large scales are influenced by the choice of extreme value analysis method.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme value analysis dilemma for climate change impact assessment on global flood and extreme precipitation

Tabari

2021

Journal of Hydrology

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A reliable estimation of hydrological extremes with potentially severe socio-economic impacts is of crucial importance for efficient planning and design of hydraulic structures. Extreme value theory provides a firm theoretical foundation for the statistical modelling of extreme hydrological events. The dilemma in the modelling is on whether to use block maxima (BM) or peak-over-threshold (POT) method, each with its own cons and pros. It remains unexplored to what extent future projected changes in extreme hydrological events are influenced by the method choice, especially when some simplifications are made to lessen the computational burden for large-scale studies. This study addresses this research question by a comparative analysis between the BM and POT methods on future climate change impact on global flood and extreme precipitation. The extreme precipitation analysis is performed using 24 CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs), while the flood analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 20 members including five global impact models forced by four CMIP5 GCMs. The results reveal that the BM and POT methods agree on the sign of changes in flood and extreme precipitation intensities, but disagree on the magnitude. The discrepancy between the BM and POT results increases with event extremity. The difference also varies with season, where the difference in the global land area with increasing signals peaks in winter at the rates of 11% for extreme precipitation and in summer at the rates of 3.5% for flood.

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Frequency Analysis of High Flow Extremes in the Yingluoxia Watershed in Northwest China

Cited by 7 publications

References 37 publications

Assessing Variation in Water Balance Components in Mountainous Inland River Basin Experiencing Climate Change

Assessing Variation in Water Balance Components in Mountainous Inland River Basin Experiencing Climate Change

Assessment of Automated Threshold selection methods and Flood Frequency Analysis of Hydrological extremes.

Extreme value analysis dilemma for climate change impact assessment on global flood and extreme precipitation

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