Foreshadowing Northeast Monsoon Rainfall Over Tamil Nadu, India

Dhar, ON; Rakhecha, P. R.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0109:fnmrot>2.0.co;2

Cited by 66 publications

(35 citation statements)

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“…This change is associated with the southward movement of the continental tropical convergence zone (CTCZ) and the sub-tropical anticyclone. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) refers to the October to December period as the northeast monsoon, which is a part of the northeast trades (Dhar and Rakhecha, 1983). The northeast monsoon is dry, stable and has less vertical extent compared to the southwest monsoon.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…Studies of the NEMR variability are limited (Ramaswamy, 1972;Dhar and Rakhecha, 1983;Singh and Sontakke, 1999;Balachandran et al, 2006). Some of the previous studies related the NEMR variability with ocean-atmosphere phenomena such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (Bhanu Kripalani and Kumar, 2004;Zubair and Ropelewski, 2006;Kumar et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Northeast monsoon over India: variability and prediction

Rajeevan

Unnikrishnan

Bhate

et al. 2012

Meteorological Applications

173

161

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South peninsular India experiences a large portion of the annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). In this study, the facets of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall (the NEMR) over India have been examined. The analysis of satellite derived hourly rainfall reveals that there are distinct features of diurnal variation over the land and oceans during the season. Over the land, rainfall peaks during the late afternoon/evening, while over the oceans an early morning peak is observed. The harmonic analysis of hourly data reveals that the amplitude and variance are the largest over south peninsular India. The NEMR also exhibits significant intra-seasonal variability on a 20-40 day time scale. Analysis also shows significant northward propagation of the maximum cloud zone from south of equator to the south peninsula during the season. The NEMR exhibits large inter-annual variability with the co-efficient of variation (CV) of 25%. The positive phases of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are conducive for normal to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon. There are multi-decadal variations in the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR. During the period 2001-2010 the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR has significantly weakened. The analysis of seasonal rainfall hindcasts for the period 1960-2005 produced by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models, ENSEMBLES, reveals that the coupled models have very poor skill in predicting the inter-annual variability of the NEMR. This is mainly due to the inability of the ENSEMBLES models to simulate the positive relationship between ENSO and the NEMR correctly.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northeast monsoon over India: variability and prediction

Rajeevan

Unnikrishnan

Bhate

et al. 2012

Meteorological Applications

173

161

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“…The heating over oceans and extensive cooling over the continental areas facilitate the northeastward flow of winds over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and thus, the moisture carried from the BOB creates a favourable condition for NE monsoon to develop over the South Peninsular India and Sri Lanka during October to December (OND). Post-monsoon season or simply the northeast monsoon rainfall (NEMR) season (OND) over South Peninsular India and Sri Lanka is the major rainfall season over this region (Dhar and Rakhecha, 1983), which helps agricultural production in this region (Kumar et al, 2007). NEMR received very less attention in terms of studies in interannual variability and its teleconnections (Singh and Sontakke, 1999;Kripalani and Kumar, 2004;Kumar et al, 2007) and over the Sri Lankan region Suppiah (1989Suppiah ( , 1996Suppiah ( , 1997.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 72%

Interannual variability of atmospheric water balance over South Peninsular India and Sri Lanka during northeast monsoon season

Venkatraman

Yasunari

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:In this study we have investigated atmospheric water balance over South Peninsular India and Sri Lanka during the months October to December (OND) using computed moisture convergence (C) and residual evaporation (E) from National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data and Global Precipitation and Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data. The interannual signatures of OND precipitation, moisture convergence and evaporation over the South Peninsular India and Sri Lanka have been captured. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the hydrological cycle and the contribution of evaporation (E) and convergence (C) to precipitation (P ) are discussed in detail. Over the South Peninsular India and Sri Lanka, evaporation (E) dominates during the entire monsoon months (OND). However, the interannual variability of precipitation over the domain is not necessarily influenced by the same criteria which influences the mean seasonal precipitation. The moisture from the Indian Ocean (IO) sector also modulates the precipitation over this region on a year-to-year basis. It has been noted that the positive northeast monsoon rainfall (NEMR) is associated with El Nino coupled with IO dipole, but negative NEMR is weakly associated only with La Nina over South Peninsular India and Sri Lanka. There also exists a significant landatmospheric interaction over the region in modulating the hydrological cycle on a year-to-year basis.

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“…Whereas the variation of the southwest monsoon has been widely studied, as documented by numerous publications, the NEMR over south peninsular India has received much less attention, with a limited number of publications (e.g. Doraiswamy, 1946;Rao Krishna and Jagannathan, 1953;Rao, 1963;Rao and Raghavendra, 1971;Ramaswamy, 1972;Srinivasan and Ramamurthy, 1973;Dhar and Rakhecha, 1983;Krishnan, 1984;Raj and Jamadar, 1990;Sridharan and Muthusamy, 1990;Singh and Sontakke, 1999;Kumar et al, 2003). Therefore, it is worthwhile examining the NEMR over a long period and investigate whether the abnormalities in the past are related to any specific cause.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northeast monsoon rainfall variability over south peninsular India vis‐à‐vis the Indian Ocean dipole mode

Kripalani

Kumar

2004

Intl Journal of Climatology

185

141

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Whereas the June through to September southwest summer monsoon season over the Indian subcontinent has been the main focus of research, the October through to December northeast monsoon season over south peninsular India has received less attention. Hence, this study focuses on the northeast monsoon rainfall (NEMR) variability using historical data for a 131 year period and its relationship with the neighbouring Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature (SST).Based on the observed available rainfall data, a time series of NEMR over the coherent south peninsular India has been developed. Similarly, an index to quantify the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM), exhibiting warm (cool) waters over the equatorial western (southeastern) Indian Ocean, has been developed using GISST data for the same period. The dynamics of the NEMR-IODM relationship are examined with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data.Interannual and decadal variabilities in NEMR reveal alternate epochs of above-and below-normal rainfall. The epochs tend to last for about a decade or two. Rainfall epochs near the equatorial Indian Ocean tend to last for about a decade. No long-term trends in NEMR are noted. On the other hand, the decadal variability in the IODM reveals a dominance of the negative phase during the earlier decades (1880-1920) and a positive phase during recent decades , with suppressed activity in between. Long-term variability in the IODM clearly reveals an increasing trend, which could be related to greenhouse warming. Further, the NEMR variability is enhanced during the decades when the IODM exhibits its active phase, and is suppressed during the decades when the IODM is inactive.The NEMR and the IODM are directly related, suggesting that the positive (negative) phase enhances (suppresses) the northeast monsoon activity. During the positive phase, the anomalous flow pattern shows winds converging and suggesting moisture transport from the southeast Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal towards south peninsular India. In contrast, the negative phase reveals winds diverging and transporting moisture away from the south Indian region. The anomalous SST and circulation features associated with the positive IOD/excess rainfall and negative IOD/deficient rainfall are consistent and clearly bring out the coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the Indian Ocean. These results show the direct influence of the IODM phenomenon on the interannual and decadal NEMR variability over south India.

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Foreshadowing Northeast Monsoon Rainfall Over Tamil Nadu, India

Cited by 66 publications

References 0 publications

Northeast monsoon over India: variability and prediction

Northeast monsoon over India: variability and prediction

Interannual variability of atmospheric water balance over South Peninsular India and Sri Lanka during northeast monsoon season

Northeast monsoon rainfall variability over south peninsular India vis‐à‐vis the Indian Ocean dipole mode

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