Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)

Abstract

This article provides jet fuel demand projections at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic forecasts are performed using dynamic panel-data econometrics. Then, the conversion of air traffic projections into quantities of jet fuel is accomplished by using a complementary approach to the 'Traffic Efficiency' method developed previously by the UK Department of Trade and Industry to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1999). According to our main scenario, air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7%. World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 1.9% per year. According to these results, energy efficiency improvements allow reducing the effect of air traffic rise on the increase in jet fuel demand, but do not annihilate it. Jet fuel demand is thus unlikely to diminish unless there is a radical technological shift, or air travel demand is restricted

Complex method of petroleum products demand forecasting considering economic, demographic and technological factors

“…Usually this approach analyzes dynamics of the GDP petroleum intensity. For example, jet fuel demand could be forecasted as a function of the cargo carriage volume, which is in its turn related to GDP dynamics (Cheze et al, 2011). (Cheze et al, 2011), may be analyzed.…”

“…For example, jet fuel demand could be forecasted as a function of the cargo carriage volume, which is in its turn related to GDP dynamics (Cheze et al, 2011). (Cheze et al, 2011), may be analyzed. A key disadvantage of this approach is that it does not account for changes in technological development and consumer preferences.…”

A Commercial Aircraft Fuel Burn and Emissions Inventory for 2005–2011

“…The unscheduled departures were extracted and the flight trajectories were optimised for least fuel burn in the APMI, so the mission fuel burn estimate in this study is found to be 18% [30], and Chèze et al [32], respectively because of the lower fuel burn, and slightly (5%) higher EI SO x (0.84 g/kg in this study vs 0.8 g/kg in Kim et al [29]) used in the calculation. The estimates of the emissions of CO, HC, and NO x are found to be higher in this work compared with those in Simone et al [33], by 4%, 40%, and 26%, respectively, in Kim et al [29], by 42%, 300%, and 17%, respectively, in Wilkerson et al [30], by 9%, 140%, and 30%, respectively, and in Chèze et al [32], by 7%, 133%, and 19%, respectively.…”

“…The inventories make up the backbone of these assessments. To date, only a limited number of such inventories [8,[19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] have been produced. Most of the aircraft fuel burn and emissions inventories that were produced in the last two decades cover a handful of years only and few have been able to analyse the trends over a significant number of years.…”

Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry

“…With respect to analysis methods, there are many scholars who have made very valuable contributions to the evolution, perfection and choice of energy demand forecast models [16][17][18][19][20][21]. As for specific practical analysis, Cheze et al [22] forecasted the energy demand of fuel oil for air transportation by 2025 through scenario design with dynamic panel data from both the global and eight geographic area levels and their results reveal that during the period from 2008-2025, the total amount of air transportation will increase by 100% with an annual average growth rate of 4.7%; then, the expected demand for fuel oil in the world will increase by 38% approximately, with an annual average growth rate of 1.9%. Besides, the leading forces that have an effect on the total growth of air transportation come mainly from global economic growth, whereas technology improvement appears to be the primary way to mitigate the increased demand for fuel oil in air transportation, but it appears that.…”