Forecasting the number of publication based on Web of Science and Scopus data integral index

Abstract

The study is completed within the framework of the state order of the Minstryof Education and Science of the Russian Federation “Monitoring and analysis of publication and patent activities in Russian and global science to support the national policy in science and technology” (Project No. 28.12616.2018/12.1). The authors aim at building relevant instruments for assessing and forecasting the total amount of Russian science publication based on the data of two global science citation systems, i. e. Web of Science and Scopus, with de-duplicating by digital object identifier used in both systems. The related tasks are defined: selection of the method to forecast the number of Web of Science indexed articles within the “back forecast” method; development of integral index to calculate the number of publication based on Web of Science and Scopus data; calculation and forecast of the number of articles and publications by G7 and BRICS states up to the year 2021 with scientometric methods based on Web of Science and Scopus data. The authors suggest a conceptually new method to calculate the integral index of publications based on Web of Science and Scopus data to exclude duplication. The total number of academic articles and publications (based on Web of Science and Scopus data) is calculated for the period 2007-2016, and the forecast is provided up to the year 2021.