Forecasting the Earth’s radiation belts and modelling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

Horne, Richard B.; Glauert, S. A.; Meredith, Nigel P.; Koskinen, H.; Vainio, R.; Afanasiev, Alexandr; Ganushkina, N. Y.; Amariutei, O. A.; Böscher, D.; Sicard, A.; Maget, Vincent; Poedts, Stefaan; Jacobs, Carla; Aran, A.; Heynderickx, D.; Pitchford, David

doi:10.1051/swsc/2013042

Cited by 24 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…The power, in turn, is directly proportional to the trapped particle flux. Thus, by observing the maximum energy of the escaping particles as a function of time allows modelling the intensity of the fluctuations and accelerated particles at the foreshock even when the shock is still in the corona or inner solar wind at a large distance from the observer (Horne et al 2013), provided that an accurate model of the coupled processes of particle acceleration and wave generation is used.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A semi-analytical foreshock model for energetic storm particle events inside 1 AU

Vainio

Pönni

Battarbee

et al. 2014

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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We have constructed a semi-analytical model of the energetic-ion foreshock of a CME-driven coronal/interplanetary shock wave responsible for the acceleration of large solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The model is based on the analytical model of diffusive shock acceleration of Bell (1978), appended with a temporal dependence of the cut-off momentum of the energetic particles accelerated at the shock, derived from the theory. Parameters of the model are re-calibrated using a fully time-dependent self-consistent simulation model of the coupled particle acceleration and Alfvén-wave generation upstream of the shock. Our results show that analytical estimates of the cut-off energy resulting from the simplified theory and frequently used in SEP modelling are overestimating the cut-off momentum at the shock by one order magnitude. We show also that the cut-off momentum observed remotely far upstream of the shock (e.g., at 1 AU) can be used to infer the properties of the foreshock and the resulting energetic storm particle (ESP) event, when the shock is still at small distances from the Sun, unaccessible to the in-situ observations. Our results can be used in ESP event modelling for future missions to the inner heliosphere, like the Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus as well as in developing acceleration models for SEP events in the solar corona.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A semi-analytical foreshock model for energetic storm particle events inside 1 AU

Vainio

Pönni

Battarbee

et al. 2014

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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“…In the latter, we use the relative entropy in addition to the relative density and velocity to determine the cobpoint candidate (Horne et al 2013). The two methods for extracting the shock data (black and blue curves in Fig.…”

Section: Evolution Of the Plasma Parameters At The Cobpointmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling large solar proton events with the shock-and-particle model

Pomoell

Aran

Jacobs

et al. 2015

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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We have developed a new version of a model that combines a two-dimensional Sun-to-Earth magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the propagation of a CME-driven shock and a simulation of the transport of particles along the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) line connecting the shock front and the observer. We assume that the shock-accelerated particles are injected at the point along the shock front that intersects this IMF line, i.e. at the cobpoint. Novel features of the model are an improved solar wind model and an enhanced fully automated algorithm to extract the necessary plasma characteristics from the shock simulation. In this work, the new algorithms have been employed to simulate the 2000 April 4 and the 2006 December 13 SEP events. In addition to quantifying the performance of the new model with respect to results obtained using previous versions of the shock-and-particle model, we investigate the semi-empirical relation between the injection rate of shock-accelerated particles, Q, and the jump in speed across the shock, VR, known as the Q(VR) relation. Our results show that while the magnetic field and density compression at the shock front is markedly different than in our previous modeling, the evolution of VR remains largely similar. As a result, we confirm that a simple relation can still be established between Q and VR, which enables the computation of synthetic intensity-time profiles at any location in interplanetary space. Furthermore, the new shock extraction tool is found to yield improved results being in general more robust. These results are important not only with regard to efforts to develop coupled magnetohydrodynamic and particle simulation models, but also to improve space weather related software tools that aim to predict the peak intensities, fluences and proton intensity-time profiles of SEP events (such as the SOLPENCO tool).

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“…In the frame of this work, the effective features to consider are the generation of an intrinsic or induced magnetosphere, an ionosphere, a thermosphere, atmospheric escape, and in some cases the production of planetary ions and neutral torus. Earth's radiation belts are a well-known aspect of terrestrial space weather for the dangerous environment they pose for satellites and astronauts (Horne et al 2013;Gubby 2002). The major space weather hazard for satellites above low Earth orbit is from very high-energy particles (such as cosmic rays and solar energetic particles) or from the slightly less high-energy particles in the radiation belts, which can cause both internal and surface charging problems leading to electrostatic discharge (e.g., Hastings and Garrett 1996).…”

Section: Characteristics Of the Different Bodies On Which The Solar Wmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At the Earth, high-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in SEP events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service (Horne et al 2013). Recent studies have examined the possibility that the strength of Jupiter's radiation belts, as measured through its synchrotron radiation output, is affected by the solar UV/EUV output (Tsuchiya et al 2011;Kita et al 2013).…”

Section: Control Of the Radiation Beltsmentioning

confidence: 99%

What characterizes planetary space weather?

Lilensten

Coates

Déhant

et al. 2014

Astron Astrophys Rev

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Space weather has become a mature discipline for the Earth space environment. With increasing efforts in space exploration, it is becoming more and more necessary to understand the space environments of bodies other than Earth. This is the background for an emerging aspect of the space weather discipline: planetary space weather. In this article, we explore what characterizes planetary space weather, using some examples throughout the solar system. We consider energy sources and timescales, the characteristics of solar system objects and interaction processes. We

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Forecasting the Earth’s radiation belts and modelling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

Cited by 24 publications

References 78 publications

A semi-analytical foreshock model for energetic storm particle events inside 1 AU

A semi-analytical foreshock model for energetic storm particle events inside 1 AU

Modelling large solar proton events with the shock-and-particle model

What characterizes planetary space weather?

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