Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model

Enns, Peter K.; Lagodny, Julius

doi:10.1017/s1049096520001407

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(12 reference statements)

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“…For Mexico, we use the governor's approval rating from February 2020, immediately prior to the widespread onset of the pandemic in the country. 4 Ideally, we would rely upon recent approval measures for both cases; In presidential systems such measures are shown to more accurately reflect recent citizens assessments of leaders (Carlin et al, 2012) and are consistently relied upon across studies examining support for executives in Latin America and elsewhere (Cohen et al, 2000;Corrales, 2016;Enns and Lagodny, 2021). However, similar data is unfortunately not available for Brazil.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

State-level Citizen Response to COVID-19 Containment Measures in Brazil and Mexico

Dunn

Laterzo

2021

Journal of Politics in Latin America

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In Brazil and Mexico, presidents failed to take swift, national action to stop the spread of COVID-19. Instead, the burden of imposing and enforcing public health measures has largely fallen to subnational leaders, resulting in varied approaches within each country and conflicting messaging from elites. We likewise see variation in compliance with social distancing across subnational units. To explain this variation, we contend that citizen responses are driven both by the comprehensiveness of state policies and whether they take cues from national or subnational elites. We hypothesize that support for national and subnational elites, and the nature of the state-level policy response, affect citizen compliance with public health guidelines. In both countries, we find that support for the governor has an interactive relationship with policy response. In Brazil, support for the president is associated with lower compliance. In Mexico, this effect is not present. We argue that these distinct relationships are due to the different cues emerging from each leader.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

State-level Citizen Response to COVID-19 Containment Measures in Brazil and Mexico

Dunn

Laterzo

2021

Journal of Politics in Latin America

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“…The model also includes each state’s deviation from the national vote in the past election (Campbell, Ali, and Jalalzai 2006; Hummel and Rothschild 2014) 5 ; home state of the presidential and vice presidential candidates; percentage of the vote in each state that went to influential third-party candidates in the previous election; and a binary indicator for southern states, capturing their Republican lean during the analysis period (Enns and Lagodny 2020).…”

Section: The State Presidential Approval/state Economy Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model

Enns

Lagodny

2020

APSC

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“…Notable recent applications for US presidential elections that provide the foundation of our own model include Berry and Bickers (2012), Klarner (2012), as well as Jerôme and Jerôme-Speziari (2012, 2016 for the elections in 2012 and 2016, respectively. For the upcoming 2020 election, state-level forecasts were conducted by DeSart (2020), Enns and Lagodny (2020) and Jérôme et al (2020).…”

Section: State-by-state Models For Us Electionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fundamentals-Based State-Level Forecasts of the 2020 US Presidential Election

Nollenberger¹,

Unger²

2020

Preprint

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Forecasts of US presidential elections have gained considerable attention in recent years. However, as became evident in 2016 with the victory of Donald Trump, most of them consider presidential elections only at the national level, neglecting that these are ultimately decided by the Electoral College. In order to improve accuracy, we believe that forecasts should instead address outcomes at the state-level to determine the eventual Electoral College winner. We develop a political economy model of the incumbent vote share across states based on different short- and long-term predictors, referring up to the end of the second quarter of election years. Testing it against election outcomes since 1980, our model correctly predicts the eventual election winner in 9 out of 10 cases – including 2016 –, with the 2000 election being the exception. For the 2020 election, it expects Trump to lose the Electoral College, as only 6.2 percent of simulated outcomes cross the required threshold of 270 Electoral Votes, with a mean prediction of 106 Electoral Votes.

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Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model

Cited by 10 publications

References 14 publications

State-level Citizen Response to COVID-19 Containment Measures in Brazil and Mexico

State-level Citizen Response to COVID-19 Containment Measures in Brazil and Mexico

Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model

Fundamentals-Based State-Level Forecasts of the 2020 US Presidential Election

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