2020
DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/cm58f
|View full text |Cite
Preprint
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

Fundamentals-Based State-Level Forecasts of the 2020 US Presidential Election

Abstract: Forecasts of US presidential elections have gained considerable attention in recent years. However, as became evident in 2016 with the victory of Donald Trump, most of them consider presidential elections only at the national level, neglecting that these are ultimately decided by the Electoral College. In order to improve accuracy, we believe that forecasts should instead address outcomes at the state-level to determine the eventual Electoral College winner. We develop a political economy model of the incumben… Show more

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...

Citation Types

0
0
0

Year Published

2023
2023
2023
2023

Publication Types

Select...
1

Relationship

0
1

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 1 publication
references
References 24 publications
(29 reference statements)
0
0
0
Order By: Relevance