Forecasting non-incumbent presidential elections: Lessons learned from the 2000 election

Sidman, Andrew H.; Mak, Maxwell; Lebo, Matthew J.

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.003

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Sidman, Mak, and Lebo (2008) also investigated partial credit retrospective evaluation forecasting models. Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to 72 models, they found that unconditional models generally had smaller errors, but the differences were relatively small.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Theory of Conditional Retrospective Voting: Does the Presidential Record Matter Less in Open-Seat Elections?

Campbell¹,

Dettrey

Yin³

2010

The Journal of Politics

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This research tests the idea that retrospective voting in presidential elections is conditional, that retrospective evaluations are applied more strictly to incumbents seeking election than to in-party candidates (successor candidates) who are not incumbents. Voters may assign only partial credit or blame for national conditions to successor candidates because, unlike incumbents, these candidates did not personally have power over the policies that might have affected the national conditions leading up to the election. This theory of conditional retrospective voting is examined at both the aggregate level on elections since 1948 and with individual-level survey data since 1972. The analysis consistently finds, as the theory of conditional retrospective voting contends, that the electorate's retrospective evaluations matter significantly more to the vote for an incumbent than to the vote for a successor candidate of the in-party.

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confidence: 99%

The Theory of Conditional Retrospective Voting: Does the Presidential Record Matter Less in Open-Seat Elections?

Campbell¹,

Dettrey

Yin³

2010

The Journal of Politics

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“…Forecasting using BMA in economical settings was discussed in Koop and Potter (2004) and was adopted by many subsequent articles. There were also some occasional applications to Political Science mostly on variable selection as in trade interdependence in conflict 2004) and some forecasting, like the study of the 2000 american presidential election in Sidman et al (2008).…”

Section: Field Of Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian Model Averaging: A Systematic Review and Conceptual Classification

Fragoso

Bertoli

Louzada

2017

Int Statistical Rev

255

177

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Abstract. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is an application of Bayesian inference to the problems of model selection, combined estimation and prediction that produces a straightforward model choice criteria and less risky predictions. However, the application of BMA is not always straightforward, leading to diverse assumptions and situational choices on its different aspects. Despite the widespread application of BMA in the literature, there were not many accounts of these differences and trends besides a few landmark revisions in the late 1990s and early 2000s, therefore not taking into account any advancements made in the last 15 years. In this work, we present an account of these developments through a careful content analysis of 587 articles in BMA published between 1996 and 2014. We also develop a conceptual classification scheme to better describe this vast literature, understand its trends and future directions and provide guidance for the researcher interested in both the application and development of the methodology. The results of the classification scheme and content review are then used to discuss the present and future of the BMA literature.

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“…There are only a few studies using a cross‐section of countries and these are either limited to wealthy, industrialized countries (Duch and Stevenson, ) or only include a few developing countries (Brender and Drazen, ). Research on US presidential elections suggests that elections in which the incumbent is not standing are much more difficult to forecast (Sidman, Mark and Lebo, ). Although economic performance is a strong predictor in US presidential elections, voters do not seem to attribute economic success to the White House party successor candidate.…”

Section: The Prevalence and Pay‐off To Electoral Misconductmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Elections Matter for Economic Performance?

Hoeffler¹

2013

Oxf Bull Econ Stat

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In mature democracies, elections discipline leaders to deliver good economic performance. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, most developing countries also hold elections, but these are often marred by illicit tactics. Using a new global data set, this article investigates whether these illicit tactics are merely blemishes or substantially undermine the economic efficacy of elections. We show that illicit tactics are widespread, and that they reduce the incentive for governments to deliver good economic performance. Our analysis also suggests that in societies with regular free and fair elections, leaders do not matter for economic growth. II. The prevalence and pay-off to electoral misconductElections are a necessary but not a sufficient condition for democracy. Most autocracies hold sham elections: to be meaningful, an election has to be conducted to certain standards. Although the quality of elections is assessed by a large number of organizations, for example, by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), The Carter

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Forecasting non-incumbent presidential elections: Lessons learned from the 2000 election

Cited by 11 publications

References 10 publications

The Theory of Conditional Retrospective Voting: Does the Presidential Record Matter Less in Open-Seat Elections?

The Theory of Conditional Retrospective Voting: Does the Presidential Record Matter Less in Open-Seat Elections?

Bayesian Model Averaging: A Systematic Review and Conceptual Classification

Do Elections Matter for Economic Performance?

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