Forecasting models for human resources in health care

O’Brien‐Pallas, Linda; Baumann, Andrea; Donner, Gail; Murphy, Gail Tomblin; Lochhaas-Gerlach, Jacquelyn; Luba, Marcia

doi:10.1046/j.1365-2648.2001.01645.x

Cited by 109 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) broadly describes five main approaches; [5] the World Health Organisation (WHO) has four; [6] and other literature presents differently. [7][8][9] Several approaches, each with unique underlying assumptions, are customarily used and advocated. Among these, the workforce-to-population ratio, needs based, and utilization based approaches are the most prominent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing health workforce forecasting approaches for healthcare planning: The case for ophthalmologists

Ansah

Koh

Korne

et al. 2017

IJH

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Health workforce planning is essential in the provision of quality healthcare. Several approaches to planning are customarily used and advocated, each with unique underlying assumptions. Thus, a thorough understanding of each assumption is required in order to make an informed decision on the choice of forecasting approach to be used. For illustration, we compare results for eye care requirements in Singapore using three established workforce forecasting approaches -workforce-to-population-ratio, needs based approach, utilization based approach -and a proposed robust integrated approach to discuss the appropriateness of each approach under various scenarios. Four simulation models using the systems modeling methodology of system dynamics were developed for use in each approach. These models were initialized and simulated using the example of eye care workforce planning in Singapore, to project the number of ophthalmologists required up to the year 2040 under the four different approaches. We found that each approach projects a different number of ophthalmologists required over time. The needs based approach tends to project the largest number of required ophthalmologists, followed by integrated, utilization based and workforce-to-population ratio approaches in descending order. The four different approaches vary widely in their forecasted workforce requirements and reinforce the need to be discerning of the fundamental differences of each approach in order to choose the most appropriate one. Further, health workforce planning should also be approached in a comprehensive and integrated manner that accounts for developments in demographic and healthcare systems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing health workforce forecasting approaches for healthcare planning: The case for ophthalmologists

Ansah

Koh

Korne

et al. 2017

IJH

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“…The area which needs to be studied is replace-ment demand. It is also to be noted while forecasting for the future demand for manpower (O'Brien-Pallas et al, 2001). The purpose of current paper is to present existing methodology for estimating the health manpower requirement and forecasting approaches and to discuss some of the methodological challenges, their potential advantages, limitations and indications for their use.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodological issues in estimating and forecasting health manpower requirement

Sharma¹,

Zodpey²,

Gaidhane³

et al. 2014

J. Public Adm. Policy Res.

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Human resource is one of the most important components of health systems. Support for human resources planning for health ranks low on the health policy agenda of many national governments and international agencies. The aim of this study is to present various existing methodologies for estimating the health manpower requirement and forecasting approaches and to discuss some of the methodological challenges, their potential advantages, limitations and indications for their use. The most common approaches which were used for estimating man power requirement are health needs based, demand based, service targets based and health manpower to population ratio. These approaches use different assumptions and require distinct data sets for estimating requirement of human resource for health. Depending on need, health planners have modified four basic methods described above, and developed an alternative approaches for estimating as well as forecasting health manpower requirement and some of them have been discussed in details. Estimating the requirement and forecasting the health manpower is the most difficult but essential task for planners. Any assessment of the optimal number of health manpower, regardless of the specific method used, is bound to have a large range of uncertainty. Hence, any country considering requirement and forecasting of health manpower can deviate from intentions in either direction. The main concern must be to have the right number and appropriate mix and distribution of health manpower to provide quality health care service to achieve positive health outcomes.

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“…The impact of manpower supply-demand imbalances has been widely reported (O'Brien-Pallas et al, 2001). For example, in the health labour market, manpower imbalances have led to health crises in societies, sudden wage fluctuations, and migration of skilled manpower.…”

Section: Manpower Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, in the health labour market, manpower imbalances have led to health crises in societies, sudden wage fluctuations, and migration of skilled manpower. Earlier manpower forecasting models were applied in such areas as health care (O'Brien-Pallas et al, 2001), steel manufacturing industry (Kao and Lee, 1998), and construction industry (Chan et al, 2006). A few artificial intelligence approaches have been employed in literature.…”

Section: Manpower Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

System dynamics of manpower planning strategies under various demand scenarios

Mutingi¹

2012

msl

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The development of human resources recruitment and training strategies in a dynamic environment poses a challenge to many policy makers in various organisations. The goal of every human resource manager is to recruit, train and deploy the right personnel at the right place and at the right time in order to meet organizational requirements. We develop a system dynamics simulation model that captures the dynamic behaviour of a typical corporate manpower system. Three major strategies are indentified and simulated under different manpower demand scenarios. Based on a set of performance indices, the impact of the strategies is simulated under assumed demand scenarios including steady increasing, fluctuating, and s-shaped demand. Useful managerial insights are derived from the study. The model is a decision support tool for developing reliable dynamic manpower policies in terms of recruitment, training capacity, available skills, and attrition. This approach can assist organizations to design effective manpower strategies.

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Forecasting models for human resources in health care

Cited by 109 publications

References 30 publications

Comparing health workforce forecasting approaches for healthcare planning: The case for ophthalmologists

Comparing health workforce forecasting approaches for healthcare planning: The case for ophthalmologists

Methodological issues in estimating and forecasting health manpower requirement

System dynamics of manpower planning strategies under various demand scenarios

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