Comparing health workforce forecasting approaches for healthcare planning: The case for ophthalmologists

Abstract

Health workforce planning is essential in the provision of quality healthcare. Several approaches to planning are customarily used and advocated, each with unique underlying assumptions. Thus, a thorough understanding of each assumption is required in order to make an informed decision on the choice of forecasting approach to be used. For illustration, we compare results for eye care requirements in Singapore using three established workforce forecasting approaches -workforce-to-population-ratio, needs based approach, utilization based approach -and a proposed robust integrated approach to discuss the appropriateness of each approach under various scenarios. Four simulation models using the systems modeling methodology of system dynamics were developed for use in each approach. These models were initialized and simulated using the example of eye care workforce planning in Singapore, to project the number of ophthalmologists required up to the year 2040 under the four different approaches. We found that each approach projects a different number of ophthalmologists required over time. The needs based approach tends to project the largest number of required ophthalmologists, followed by integrated, utilization based and workforce-to-population ratio approaches in descending order. The four different approaches vary widely in their forecasted workforce requirements and reinforce the need to be discerning of the fundamental differences of each approach in order to choose the most appropriate one. Further, health workforce planning should also be approached in a comprehensive and integrated manner that accounts for developments in demographic and healthcare systems.

Forecasting maldistribution of human resources for healthcare and patients in Japan: a utilization-based approach

“…In Japan, health care planning by using PPR as indicator of resources allocation have been daily used [6]. However, some studied have pointed out that estimation by using only PPR required additional analysis, because this approach is likely to deal with the matter of unequal distribution of healthcare workforce [21]. J Bauer et al claimed that PPRs don’t reveal detailed spatial variations within an area nor taking into account for boundary crossing of patients and physicians [22].…”

Elucidating variations in outcomes among older end-stage renal disease patients on hemodialysis in Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan

“…This maldistribution in the workforce seems to originate from the existing practice of projecting the workforce that is based on the provider-to-population ratio rather than population demand or population needs [49]. Due to the rapidly changing Japanese population and disease patterns, a few researchers have deemed such conventional methods for projecting the workforce supply as no longer feasible, instead recommending the use of projection based on utilization [49][50][51]. While solving this issue requires thorough long-term planning at the ministerial level, a short-term solution, perhaps, could be used by developing existing human resources.…”

Modeling manpower requirement for a changing population health needs: The case of ophthalmic nurses and allied health ophthalmic professionals

“…It is particularly useful for facilitating stakeholder engagement [12][13][14][15][16] . System dynamics has been applied primarily in business and public policy context [17][18][19] and is now increasingly being applied as a modelling paradigm for health workforce planning [20][21][22][23][24][25][26] .…”