System dynamics of manpower planning strategies under various demand scenarios

Abstract

The development of human resources recruitment and training strategies in a dynamic environment poses a challenge to many policy makers in various organisations. The goal of every human resource manager is to recruit, train and deploy the right personnel at the right place and at the right time in order to meet organizational requirements. We develop a system dynamics simulation model that captures the dynamic behaviour of a typical corporate manpower system. Three major strategies are indentified and simulated under different manpower demand scenarios. Based on a set of performance indices, the impact of the strategies is simulated under assumed demand scenarios including steady increasing, fluctuating, and s-shaped demand. Useful managerial insights are derived from the study. The model is a decision support tool for developing reliable dynamic manpower policies in terms of recruitment, training capacity, available skills, and attrition. This approach can assist organizations to design effective manpower strategies.

Health Manpower Forecasting: A systematic Review for Models and Approaches

“…System dynamics (SD) initiated by Forrester (1961) is a modeling method consisted of causal loops and stock-flow diagrams depicting interactions among variables and the structure of a system flow 112,113 . Stock variables represent the current situation of system; while flow variables explain changes constantly occur in the stock [112][113][114] . Method is used to identify the organization, performance and behavior of complex systems.…”

“…The method enables us to simulate real systems with complicated structure and understand their feedback interrelationships and dynamic nature of variables 113,115 . Interaction among system components causes the dynamic behavior of systems over time which is able to be considered in SD modeling.…”

“…Method allows for capturing dynamic impacts related to time delays and feedback relations of a system 113 . In fact, managers profit from the interactive environment created by system dynamics 113,114,[116][117][118][119] . Also ability of the model to depict effects of different policies makes it a useful method for better policy making in different decision areas including manpower planning 113,118 .…”

“…In fact, managers profit from the interactive environment created by system dynamics 113,114,[116][117][118][119] . Also ability of the model to depict effects of different policies makes it a useful method for better policy making in different decision areas including manpower planning 113,118 . By reviewing manpower projections and altering assumptions when appropriate, possible surpluses or shortages in future manpower can be recognized 113,116 .…”

“…Also ability of the model to depict effects of different policies makes it a useful method for better policy making in different decision areas including manpower planning 113,118 . By reviewing manpower projections and altering assumptions when appropriate, possible surpluses or shortages in future manpower can be recognized 113,116 . Experiencing long term effects in a short time by testing what-if scenarios can help modelers to design better strategies for system development.…”