Forecasting Model for Air Taxi, Commercial Airline, and Automobile Demand in the United States

Abstract

A nationwide model predicts the annual county-to-county person round-trips for air taxi, commercial airline, and automobile at 1-year intervals through 2030. The transportation systems analysis model (TSAM) uses the four-step transportation systems modeling process to calculate trip generation, trip distribution, and mode choice for each county origin-destination pair. Network assignment is formulated for commercial airline and air taxi demand. TSAM classifies trip rates by trip purpose, household income group, and type of metropolitan statistical area from which the round-trip started. A graphical user interface with geographic information systems capability is included in the model. Potential applications of the model are nationwide impact studies of transportation policies and technologies, such as those envisioned with the introduction of extensive air taxi service using very light jets, the next-generation air transportation system, and the introduction of new aerospace technologies.

Investigation of approaches to modeling of intercity passenger transportation system

“…Among such approaches one can see the proposed in [37], which is used to predict the passenger flow between different geographical points.…”

Methodological Options and Data Sources for the Development of Long-Distance Passenger Travel Demand Models: A Comprehensive Review

“…Of all the national travel demand models reviewed, the trip-based four-step approach is the most dominant methodology. Variants on the four-step approach have been employed in a number of national models in Europe, including those in Denmark (Fosgerau, 1998), Germany, Hungary, Italy (Lundqvist & Mattsson, 2001), Japan (Yao & Morikawa, 2003), the Netherlands (Daly, Fox, & Tuinenga, 2005;Gunn, Mijjer, Lindveldt, & Hofman, 1997), Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the USA (Ashiabor, Baik, & Trani, 2007;Baik et al, 2008;Cambridge Systematics, 2008) and in panEuropean models (Davidson & Clarke, 2004;Gaudry, 2001;Leitham, Downing, Martino, & Fiorello, 1999;Nielsen, 2007). Quite a few states adopt similar methods in their statewide models as well, such as Indiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Virginia, among others.…”

A multi-paradigm approach to system dynamics modeling of intercity transportation

“…This method has been extensively used for intra-urban problems but it also found inroads to intercity problems. For example, Stopher and Prashker (1976), Koppelman (1989) and Baik et al (2008) treated the US multimodal demand for different modes (automobile, commercial transport, train and/or general aviation) with different geographic granularities (metropolitan statistical areas or counties) using different databases (NTS 1972, NTS 1977or ATS 1995. These models, however, share the common structure of demand generation as they embrace the conventional FSM, which remains unaltered since its inception, starting from gross demand estimation and ending with determining routes.…”