Forecasting disease risk with seasonal climate predictions

Thomson, M. C.; Palmer, T. N.; Morse, Andrew P.; Cresswell, Mark; Connor, Stephen J.

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(05)74616-x

Cited by 26 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…2 schematic. One application is the prediction of a malaria outbreak in tropical Africa (Thomson et al 2000;Thomson and Connor 2001). As shown in Fig.…”

Section: (C) Ensemble Forecasts On Seasonal Time-scalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades

Palmer

2002

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

240

180

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SUMMARYDespite the revolutionary development of numerical weather and climate prediction (NWCP) in the second half of the last century, quantitative interaction between model developers and forecast customers has been rather limited. This is apparent in the diverse ways in which weather forecasts are assessed by these two groups: rootmean-square error of 500 hPa height on the one hand; pounds, euros or dollars saved on the other.These differences of approach are changing with the development of ensemble forecasting. Ensemble forecasts provide a qualitative tool for the assessment of weather and climate risk for a range of user applications, and on a range of time-scales, from days to decades. Examples of the commercial application of ensemble forecasting, from electricity generation, ship routeing, pollution modelling, weather-risk nance, disease prediction and crop yield modelling, are shown from all these time-scales.A generic user decision model is described that allows one to assess the potential economic value of numerical weather and climate forecasts for a range of customers. Using this, it is possible to relate analytically, potential economic value to conventional meteorological skill scores. A generalized meteorological measure of forecast skill is proposed which takes the distribution of customers into account. It is suggested that when customers' exposure to weather or climate risk can be quanti ed, such more generalized measures of skill should be used in assessing the performance of an operational NWCP system.

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“…2 schematic. One application is the prediction of a malaria outbreak in tropical Africa (Thomson et al 2000;Thomson and Connor 2001). As shown in Fig.…”

Section: (C) Ensemble Forecasts On Seasonal Time-scalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades

Palmer

2002

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

240

180

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Health planners would greatly benefit from prior knowledge of areas at risk of climate-related epidemics in the forthcoming season, and skilful seasonal climate forecasts may provide early warning to allow interventions to be in place before the start of the epidemic (Thomson et al, 2000). The malaria community has shown considerable interest in the use of seasonal climate forecasts for the development of malaria early warning systems (MEWS; World Health Organization 2001), as a direct consequence of numerous reports indicating that malaria incidence (including epidemics) in certain parts of the world can be shown to be correlated with sea surface temperatures (SSTs; Kovats et al, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model

Morse

Doblas‐Reyes

Hoshen

et al. 2005

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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(2005) A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model, T E L L U SA forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model A B S T R A C T We discuss a novel three-tier hierarchical approach to the validation of an end-to-end seasonal climate forecast system. We present a malaria transmission simulation model (MTSM) driven with output from the DEMETER multi-model seasonal climate predictions, to produce probabilistic hindcasts of malaria prevalence. These prevalence hindcasts are second-tier validated against estimates from the MTSM driven with ERA-40 gridded analyses. The DEMETER-MTSM prevalence hindcasts are shown to be (tier-2) skilful for the one-month lead seasonal predictions as well as for the period covering the seasonal malaria peak with a 4-6 month forecast window for the event prevalence above the median. Interestingly, the tier-2 Brier skill score for the forecast window of the hindcasts starting in February, for the event prevalence above the median, is higher than for either the tier-1 precipitation or temperature forecasts, which were the MTSM driving variables.

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“…Seasonal forecasts are clearly of value to a wide cross section of society, for personal, commercial, and humanitarian reasons (e.g., Stern and Easterling 1999;Thomson et al 2000;Pielke and Carbone 2002;Hartmann et al 2002a;Murnane et al 2002). However, notwithstanding predictable signals arising from atmosphere-ocean coupling, the overlying atmosphere is intrinsically chaotic, implying that predicted day-to-day evolution of weather is necessarily sensitive to initial conditions (Palmer 1993;Shukla 1998).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (Demeter)

Palmer¹,

Alessandri²,

Andersen³

et al. 2004

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

901

826

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Forecasting disease risk with seasonal climate predictions

Cited by 26 publications

References 3 publications

The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades

The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades

A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model

Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (Demeter)

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