Forecasting COVID-19 in Morocco

Abstract

The COVID-19 has become a public health emergency of international concern. As of April 26, 2020, this pandemic has caused in Morocco more than 4065 confirmed infections and more than 161 reported deaths. To mitigate this epidemic threat and act quickly, it is very important to monitor and analyze changing trends and predict what might happen in the future. The main objective of this paper is to develop a successful prediction. We used in this study at the end of each week the TBATS model to forecast confirmed cases. This model is calculated on the basis of the daily historical data. From the results obtained we can conclude that the predictions obtained are close to reality and for the peak of this epidemic is not yet identified. The obtained results shows that this epidemics will continue to grow. For our forecast from 04/27/2020 to 05/03/2020 we estimate that the number of affected cases will achieve 4367 cases.

Is there a relationship between industrial clusters and the prevalence of COVID‐19 in the provinces of Morocco?

“…These measures have helped to flatten the curve of contaminated cases relative to neighbouring countries (Sebbani et al, 2020), but the prospects for the spread of the pandemic remain alarming (Layelmam et al, 2020) and the socio-economic impacts have been as significant as those identified internationally (Nicola et al, 2020).…”

COVID-19 Outbreak in Post-Soviet States: Modeling the Best and Worst Possible Scenarios

“…The majority of these systems utilizes available data and applies mathematical and/or statistical modeling capable of predicting a future outbreak (14)(15)(16). There were several attempts in different countries to establish a modelling method for the prediction of COVID-19 spread including a group in China which estimated the serial interval for COVID-19 (17), to predict the dynamics of COVID-19 spread (18,19). Applying a mathematical model on the available data, a group showed that lockdown measures were effective in reducing COVID-19 transmission rate and that imported cases have a different dynamic of transmission.…”