Inverse problem to elaborate and control the spread of COVID-19: A case study from Morocco

Karim, M. Nazmul; Kouidere, Abdelfatah; Rachik, Mostafa; Shah, Kamal; Abdeljawad, Thabet

doi:10.3934/math.20231194

MATH

2023

DOI: 10.3934/math.20231194

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Inverse problem to elaborate and control the spread of COVID-19: A case study from Morocco

M. Nazmul Karim

Abdelfatah Kouidere

Mostafa Rachik

et al.

Abstract: <abstract><p>In this paper, we focus on identifying the transmission rate associated with a COVID-19 mathematical model by using a predefined prevalence function. To do so, we use a Python code to extract the Lagrange interpolation polynomial from real daily data corresponding to an appropriate period in Morocco. The existence of a perfect control scheme is demonstrated. The Pontryagin maximum technique is used to explain these optimal controls. The optimality system is numerically solved using the… Show more

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2024

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Cited by 2 publications

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Duality of fractional derivatives: On a hybrid and non-hybrid inclusion problem

Soudani,

Amara,

Zennir

et al. 2024

Journal of Inverse and Ill-Posed Problems

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The main goal of this paper is to investigate a newly proposed hybrid and hybrid inclusion problem consisting of fractional differential problems involving two different fractional derivatives of order μ, Caputo and Liouville–Riemann operators, with multi-order mixed Riemann–Liouville integro-derivative conditions. Although α is between one and two, we need three boundary value conditions to find the integral equation. The study investigates the results of existence for hybrid, hybrid inclusion, and non-hybrid inclusion problems by employing several analytical approaches, including Dhage’s technique, α - ψ {\alpha-\psi} -contractive mappings, fixed points, and endpoints of the product operators. To further illustrate our findings, we present three examples.

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Duality of fractional derivatives: On a hybrid and non-hybrid inclusion problem

Soudani,

Amara,

Zennir

et al. 2024

Journal of Inverse and Ill-Posed Problems

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A non-autonomous time-delayed SIR model for COVID-19 epidemics prediction in China during the transmission of Omicron variant

Li,

Pei,

Duan

et al. 2024

era

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<abstract><p>With the continuous evolution of the coronavirus, the Omicron variant has gradually replaced the Delta variant as the prevalent strain. Their inducing epidemics last longer, have a higher number of asymptomatic cases, and are more serious. In this article, we proposed a nonautonomous time-delayed susceptible-infected-removed (NATD-SIR) model to predict them in different regions of China. We obtained the maximum and its time of current infected persons, the final size, and the end time of COVID-19 epidemics from January 2022 in China. The method of the fifth-order moving average was used to preprocess the time series of the numbers of current infected and removed cases to obtain more accurate parameter estimations. We found that usually the transmission rate $ \beta(t) $ was a piecewise exponential decay function, but due to multiple bounces in Shanghai City, $ \beta(t) $ was approximately a piecewise quadratic function. In most regions, the removed rate $ \gamma(t) $ was approximately equal to a piecewise linear increasing function of (a*t+b)*H(t-k), but in a few areas, $ \gamma(t) $ displayed an exponential increasing trend. For cases where the removed rate cannot be obtained, we proposed a method for setting the removed rate, which has a good approximation. Using the numerical solution, we obtained the prediction results of the epidemics. By analyzing those important indicators of COVID-19, we provided valuable suggestions for epidemic prevention and control and the resumption of work and production.</p></abstract>

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Inverse problem to elaborate and control the spread of COVID-19: A case study from Morocco

Cited by 2 publications

References 25 publications

Duality of fractional derivatives: On a hybrid and non-hybrid inclusion problem

Duality of fractional derivatives: On a hybrid and non-hybrid inclusion problem

A non-autonomous time-delayed SIR model for COVID-19 epidemics prediction in China during the transmission of Omicron variant

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