Background During the spike of COVID-19 pandemic in Kazakhstan (June-2020), multiple SARS-CoV-2 PCR-test negative pneumonia cases with higher mortality were reported by media. We aimed to study the epidemiologic characteristics of hospitalized PCR-test positive and negative patients with analysis of in-hospital and post-hospital mortality. We also compare the respiratory disease characteristics between 2019 and 2020. Methods The study population consist of 17,691 (March–July-2020) and 4600 (March–July-2019) hospitalized patients with respiratory diseases (including COVID-19). The incidence rate, case-fatality rate and survival analysis for overall mortality (in-hospital and post-hospital) were assessed. Results The incidence and mortality rates for respiratory diseases were 4-fold and 11-fold higher in 2020 compared to 2019 (877.5 vs 228.2 and 11.2 vs 1.2 per 100,000 respectively). The PCR-positive cases (compared to PCR-negative) had 2-fold higher risk of overall mortality. We observed 24% higher risk of death in males compared to females and in older patients compared to younger ones. Patients residing in rural areas had 66% higher risk of death compared to city residents and being treated in a provisional hospital was associated with 1.9-fold increased mortality compared to those who were treated in infectious disease hospitals. Conclusion This is the first study from the Central Asia and Eurasia regions, evaluating the mortality of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive and PCR-negative respiratory system diseases during the peak of COVID-19 pandemic. We describe a higher mortality rate for PCR-test positive cases compared to PCR-test negative cases, for males compared to females, for elder patients compared to younger ones and for patients living in rural areas compared to city residents.

Background: COVID-19 pandemic has presented extreme challenges to developing countries across the world. Post-Soviet states are facing unique challenges due to their developing healthcare systems and unstable economy. The aim of this paper was to provide estimates for current development COVID-19 pandemic in the Post-Soviet states and forecast potential best and worst scenarios for spread of this deadly infection. Methods:The data on confirmed cases and deaths were extracted from official governmental sources for a period from beginning of outbreak dates for each country until April 18, 2020. A modified SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) modelling was used to plot the parameters of epidemic in 10 post-Soviet states and forecast the number of cases over a period of 10, 30 and 60 days. We also estimated the numbers of cases based on the optimal measures (best scenario) and suboptimal measures (worst scenarios) of potential spread of COVID-19 in these countries.

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Background: COVID-19 pandemic has presented extreme challenges to developing countries across the world. The aim of this paper was to provide estimates for current development COVID-19 pandemic in the Post-Soviet states and forecast potential best and worst scenarios for spread of this deadly infection. Methods:The data on COVID-19 cases extracted from official governmental sources until April 18, 2020. A modified SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) modelling was used to plot the pandemic outbreak in 10 Post-Soviet states and forecasting over the period of 10, 30 and 60 days. The optimal measures (best-scenario) and suboptimal measures (worst-scenarios) of potential spread of COVID-19 in these countries were estimated.Results: It was estimated that Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached their peaks, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and Uzbekistan are expected to reach their peaks in the early May-2020), with comparatively low cases of COVID-19 in the best-case scenario. In contrast, Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine would likely see the outbreaks with the largest number of COVID-19 cases amongst the studied Post-Soviet States in the worst-scenario during the next 30 and 60 days. Conclusion:Governmental response was shown to be as an important determining factor responsible for the development of COVID-19 epidemic in Post-Soviet states. The current protection rates should be maintained to reduce active cases during upcoming 30 and 60 days. The estimated possible scenarios based on the proposed model can potentially be used by healthcare professionals from each studied Post-Soviet States as well as others to improve plans to contain the current and future epidemic.

Background: Viral hepatitis is the leading cause of hepatic cirrhosis and liver-related mortality, yet there are no countrywide epidemiological studies available to date in Kazakhstan. The aim of the study was to perform an estimation of mortality, prevalence and incidence of Hepatitis B and C infections and liver-related complications. Methods: Using centralized healthcare data from the Unified National Electronic Health System (UNEHS) for the period 2014-2019, a total of 82,700 registered patients with chronic viral hepatitis B (HBV), C (HCV) and D (HDV) have been extracted based on ICD −10 codes. Crude rates of incidence, prevalence and mortality, as well as age-, sex-and year-specific rates of incidence and mortality per 100,000 population were estimated. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. Results: For the total number of 82,700 patients, 56.6% were represented by chronic HCV infection and 43.4% by HBV infection. The prevalence of coinfection was 10% for HBV+HDV and 3.5% for HBV+HCV. Both HBV and HCV were more prevalent among female patients (56%) and among Kazakh ethnic group (64.8%). Males with HBV had a higher probability of death than females; this trend was stronger among male patients with HCV. Russian ethnic groups infected with HBV had a higher risk of death compared to Kazakh and other ethnic groups. Whereas in HCV-infected patients, Russian ethnic group and other ethnic group had similar risk for death, but higher compared to Kazakhs. Conclusion: During the 2014-2019 period, prevalence, incidence and mortality from chronic HBV and HCV infections increased. Despite the disproportionately higher infection rate among females with chronic viral hepatitis, all-cause mortality was more than twofold higher among males. Higher death rates in Russian ethnic group compared to other ethnicities need to be evaluated in further studies for other confounding factors and associated comorbidities in this group.

Reference 1. Gaipov, et al. SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive and PCR-negative cases of pneumonia admitted to the hospital during the peak of COVID-19 pandemic: analysis of in-hospital and posthospital mortality.

Background and objectivesAlthough global HIV pandemic has stabilized, it continues to rise in Eastern Europe and Central Asia due to exponential growth of newly acquired cases. Based on UNAIDS, there are currently 35,000 people living with HIV (PLWH) in Kazakhstan. This alarming HIV epidemiologic situation mandates urgent investigation of causes, routes of transmission and other characteristics in order to halt the epidemic. We aimed to analyze the data of all hospitalized patients for the period of 2014–2019 who tested positive for HIV from the Unified National Electronic Health System (UNEHS) of Kazakhstan.MethodsThis cohort study extracted data for all HIV positive patients during 2014–2019 from UNEHS of Kazakhstan to apply descriptive, Kaplan–Meier estimation, and Cox proportional hazards regression model. Crosscheck of the target population data was conducted with tuberculosis, viral hepatitis, alcohol abuse and intravenous drug user (IDU) cohorts in order to create a comprehensive database. All survival functions and factors associated with mortality were tested for significance.ResultsThe cohort population (n = 2,213) mean age was 33.3 ± 13.3 years with 1,375 males (62.1%) and 838 females (37.9%). Incidence rate decreased from 2.05 in 2014 to 1.88 in 2019, however, prevalence and mortality continues to escalate every year, the mortality raised significantly from 0.39 in 2014 to 0.97 in 2019. People aged >50 years, males, retired people, patients from tuberculosis hospital profile had much lower survival probabilities than the corresponding groups. Adjusted Cox regression model death hazard showed strong association of HIV patients with tuberculosis coinfection (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1; 1.7, p < 0.001).ConclusionThe results of this study demonstrate high rates of HIV mortality, strong association of HIV with TB coinfection, regional, age specific, gender, hospital profile and social status differences that significantly affect HIV prevalence. Since the prevalence of HIV is continuing to increase, more information is necessary for evaluation and implementation of prevention procedures.

Background: Persistent hyperlipidemia is a major cause of cardiovascular morbidity in patients with nephrotic and non-nephrotic patients. Low-density lipoprotein-apheresis (LDL-apheresis) was shown to rapidly remove lipid structures. The current study aimed to compare the initial lipid profiles in patients with nephrotic syndrome and non-nephrotic hyperlipidemia as well as to evaluate the lipid profile of each group following a single treatment with LDL-apheresis. Methods:This is an open-label observational cross-sectional study of patients treated with LDL-apheresis including ten patients with nephrotic syndrome and thirteen patients with non-nephrotic hyperlipidemia who were either resistant and/or intolerant of lipid lowering therapy, with normal kidney function. Routine blood tests with full traditional lipid profile (Total cholesterol-(TC), Low-density lipoprotein (LDL), High-density lipoprotein (HDL), Triglycerides-(TG)) were determined before and after 12-hours following a single LDL-apheresis procedure.Results: Both groups were comparable by sex and age with more males than female in both groups. Baseline lipid profile was different between the two groups with nephrotic syndrome patients having significantly higher TC (p=0.05), LDL (p<0.001) and HDL (p<0.02) than those with non-nephrotic hyperlipidemia. A single treatment with LDL-apheresis resulted in significant improvements in the lipid profile of both groups including TC, HDL, LDL and TG, however HDL not significantly reduced in patients with nephrotic syndrome. Conclusion:Resistant nephrotic syndrome patients have a more severe and persistent hyperlipidemia than patients with non-nephrotic hyperlipidemia. The current study shows that LDL-apheresis is a safe and effective alternative to those who cannot tolerate or resistant to conventional treatments.