Forecasting changes in river water resources of Russian Federation based on CMIP5 runoff data

Golovanov, O. F.

doi:10.21638/spbu07.2019.203

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…The outputs of climate models include two variables that characterise river runoff: total runoff (total runoff flux, mrro) and surface runoff (surface runoff flux, mrros). When analysing the data, it was found that the data on the mrros variable (surface runoff) are significantly underestimated, which is consistent with the data given in [6]. Therefore, the reproduction of the variable mrro (total runoff), which includes the underground component, is investigated in the work.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 78%

“…It is believed that AOGCMs contain simplified schemes for calculating river runoff, which do not allow adequate reproduction of runoff fluctuations. But, one cannot ignore the fact that the leading scientific centres (specialists) of world hydrometeorology are constantly improving the developed models [6]. However, an obligatory step before working with the data of global models is their preliminary testing in terms of the quality of reproduction of the characteristics of the modern climate [2,3,6,8,12,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Selection of an Ensemble of Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulation Models of the CMIP-6 Project for estimating possible runoff changes in the Volga and Kama basins

Sidorova,

Alieva,

Shtol

et al. 2023

E3S Web Conf.

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In modern conditions of climate change and increasing pressure on water resources, river forecasting is becoming one of the urgent tasks of rational water use. The main tool for long-term climate characteristics prediction are the Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulation Models (AOGCM). In this paper, we assessed the quality of a number of climatic characteristics by the CMIP-6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6) AOGCMs for the Volga and Kama basins in order to access the possibility of their use to river runoff in the 21st century forecasting. A comparison was made of the data produced by the models for the period 1985-2014 and ERA5 reanalysis data (temperature and precipitation) as well as with observational data on river runoff. The reproduction error of the average values, standard deviations, and the coincidence of series trends evaluated. It is shown that the models demonstrate very different quality of the reproduction of water balance characteristics results. When using these models to predict possible changes in river flow in the future, it is necessary to take into account these uncertainties and apply methods to reduce the impact of systematic errors.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 78%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Selection of an Ensemble of Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulation Models of the CMIP-6 Project for estimating possible runoff changes in the Volga and Kama basins

Sidorova,

Alieva,

Shtol

et al. 2023

E3S Web Conf.

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Changes in river water resources of the Russian Federation's economic regions forecasted based on the CMIP5 runoff data

Golovanov¹,

Balonishnikova²,

Тимофеева³

2021

Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology

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Assessment of river flow future changes in the Upper Volga and Kama basins based on climate modeling data

Sidorova,

Yasinsky

2024

E3S Web Conf.

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The ongoing climate changes affect water resources and the water bodies’ regime. This is reflected in the water management complex operation. Analysis of possible hydrological changes in the Upper Volga and Kama basins in the 21st century is based on projections of future climate in the ensemble of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models (AGOGS) of the CMIP6 project (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). Models were selected according to the reliability of regional climate reproduction. An assessment of possible changes in the annual average river flow in the 21st century for five reservoir basins of the Upper Volga and three Kama reservoirs basins was made. The assessment was carried out according to two scenarios - optimistic and pessimistic, which provides a wide range of assessments of future changes. It is shown during the 21st century no fundamental changes in river flow are expected in the study areas.

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Forecasting changes in river water resources of Russian Federation based on CMIP5 runoff data

Cited by 7 publications

References 2 publications

Selection of an Ensemble of Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulation Models of the CMIP-6 Project for estimating possible runoff changes in the Volga and Kama basins

Selection of an Ensemble of Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulation Models of the CMIP-6 Project for estimating possible runoff changes in the Volga and Kama basins

Changes in river water resources of the Russian Federation's economic regions forecasted based on the CMIP5 runoff data

Assessment of river flow future changes in the Upper Volga and Kama basins based on climate modeling data

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