Assessment of river flow future changes in the Upper Volga and Kama basins based on climate modeling data

Abstract

The ongoing climate changes affect water resources and the water bodies’ regime. This is reflected in the water management complex operation. Analysis of possible hydrological changes in the Upper Volga and Kama basins in the 21st century is based on projections of future climate in the ensemble of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models (AGOGS) of the CMIP6 project (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). Models were selected according to the reliability of regional climate reproduction. An assessment of possible changes in the annual average river flow in the 21st century for five reservoir basins of the Upper Volga and three Kama reservoirs basins was made. The assessment was carried out according to two scenarios - optimistic and pessimistic, which provides a wide range of assessments of future changes. It is shown during the 21st century no fundamental changes in river flow are expected in the study areas.