Changes in river water resources of the Russian Federation's economic regions forecasted based on the CMIP5 runoff data

Golovanov, O. F.; Balonishnikova, Zhanna; Тимофеева, Л. А.

doi:10.1016/j.ecohyd.2021.06.004

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The indicated trends of future water regime changes in the Don river basin would be generally similar to the estimates obtained for the Volga River's left-bank tributaries [22], and changes in the water regime of northern European Russia's rivers would be similar to changes in the Kama river basin [32,33]. According to [34], positive anomalies in annual runoff are possible in most of Russia in the 21st century, while negative anomalies are possible in the south of European Russia (basins of the Don, Kuban, Terek, etc.). Maximum flow during snowmelt may be reduced by 10-30% in southwestern Russia [35], which agrees with the findings of this study.…”

Section: Hydrological Projectionssupporting

confidence: 68%

Climate Change Effects on River Flow in Eastern Europe: Arctic Rivers vs. Southern Rivers

Kalugin

2023

Climate

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The hydrological model ECOMAG was used to calculate runoff characteristics in the main arctic (Northern Dvina and Pechora) and southern (Don and Kuban) river basins of Eastern Europe using the data from the ensemble of global climate models under the scenario of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming in the 21st century relative to pre-industrial values. Flow generation models were calibrated and validated based on runoff measurements at gauging stations using meteorological observation data. According to the results of numerical experiments, the relative change in river runoff in European Russia increases from north to south and from east to west under global warming of 1.5 to 2 °C. As a result, hydrological systems in milder climate were found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The assessment of flow anomalies in European Russia under the selected climate scenarios revealed the following general features: winter runoff in arctic rivers would increase, spring melt runoff in the Northern Dvina and Don would decrease, and summer–autumn runoff in all studied rivers would decrease to varying degrees. The most negative runoff anomalies are characterized in the southwestern part of the Northern Dvina basin, the middle part of the Don basin, and the lowland part of the Kuban basin, whereas positive runoff anomalies are characterized in the northern and eastern parts of the Pechora basin. Global warming of 1.5 to 2 °C would have the greatest impact on the rate of reduction of Kuban summer–autumn runoff and Don runoff during the spring flood, as well as the increase in Northern Dvina and Pechora winter runoff.

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Section: Hydrological Projectionssupporting

confidence: 68%

Climate Change Effects on River Flow in Eastern Europe: Arctic Rivers vs. Southern Rivers

Kalugin

2023

Climate

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“…The obtained results of changes in water regime of rivers in the Volga basin under global warming by 1.5 • C and 2 • C can be compared with the results of runoff calculations only according to GCMs and using hydrological models. GCMs acceptably reproduce the Volga annual runoff [14,15,49] but reproduce its intra-annual variations with large errors. This is due to the fact that global hydrological models are characterized by simplified parameterization of land hydrological cycle processes and do not take into account regional peculiarities of river flow formation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given the huge size of the Volga basin and high runoff from spring meltwater, it is not possible to effectively calculate changes in future seasonal runoff using only data from GCMs [50]. According to [15], possible changes in the Volga annual runoff vary from −5% to 10%, depending on the 21st century period and RCPs, or equal to −5% [14] and 5% [49] by the end of the 21st century. One of the arguments explaining the inaccuracies in the calculation of annual runoff from precipitation and evaporation data is that the correlation coefficient of the Volga annual runoff and annual precipitation does not exceed 0.3 to 0.4 [51].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to [52], based on STREAM conceptual model calculations and GCMs data, the Volga runoff will increase in the 21st century by about 7%. According to CMIP5 ensemble data and hydrological model TOPMODEL, the runoff will increase by 14% in the Kama basin under RCP8.5 by the mid-21st century, and in the rest of the Volga basin, the change in runoff will not exceed 5% in the nearest 40 years [15]. Research [53] using a regional climate model [54] and a simplified CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model [55] presents estimates of possible changes in the maximum flow of the Volga basin rivers in the 21st century.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the ensemble data of global climate models (GCMs) [14], the decrease in Volga's runoff in the second half of the 21st century will be by about 5%. According to CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5) ensemble data and the hydrological model TOPMODEL, runoff will increase by 14% in the Kama basin under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario by the mid-21st century, and in the rest of the Volga basin, the runoff change will not exceed 5% in the nearest 40 years [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrological and Meteorological Variability in the Volga River Basin under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees

Kalugin

2022

Climate

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The idea of the research to assess the impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming in the 21st century on the runoff formation in the Volga basin corresponds to the Paris agreement on climate change 2016 with the main goal to keep the global air temperature rise to below 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial level and to take measures to limit warming to 1.5 °C by the end of the 21st century. The purpose of this study was to obtain physically based results of changes in the water regime of the Volga basin rivers under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial values. The physical and mathematical model of runoff generation ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) was applied in calculations using data from global climate models (GCMs). The estimation of flow anomalies of the Volga River and its major tributaries showed a decrease in annual runoff by 10–11% relative to the period from 1970 to 1999. The largest relative decrease in runoff by 17–20% was noted for the Oka and Upper Volga rivers, while the Kama River had only a 1–5% decrease. The Volga winter runoff increased by 17% and 28% under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively, and negative runoff anomalies during the spring flood and the summer–autumn period turned out to be in the range of 21 to 23%. Despite the increase in precipitation, the role of evaporation in the water balance of the Volga basin will only increase.

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Evolution and driving mechanism of runoff in the Han River basin from 1980 to 2020 under changing environments

Luo,

Liu,

Wang

et al. 2024

Ecohydrology

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Recent studies in ecohydrology have focussed on the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff. To reveal the hydrological response mechanism under changing environments, this investigation explored the evolution and driving mechanism of Q (the mean annual runoff) in the Han River basin from 1980 to 2020 by combining the Budyko–Porporato–Guswa coupling model and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, with scenario analysis and statistical analysis. The results showed that (1) Q was 719.38 mm and showed a fluctuating trend from 1980 to 2020. The spatial distribution was characterised by the largest in the upper Mei River, the second in the Ting River, and the smallest in the lower Mei River and the upper‐middle Han River. (2) Q increased with obvious spatial heterogeneity under the impact of climate change and the integrated impact of climate and vegetation changes. (3) Q had the strongest sensitivity to the change in E0, followed by P, and the weakest was vegetation. Q and E0 showed a strong correlation. (4) The principal driver for the change in Q was climate change, and the impact of P was greater than E0. The impact of vegetation variability was the smallest. This paper can serve as a reference for the research of hydrological response to changing environments and an academic foundation for the scheduling of water resources.

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Changes in river water resources of the Russian Federation's economic regions forecasted based on the CMIP5 runoff data

Cited by 5 publications

References 18 publications

Climate Change Effects on River Flow in Eastern Europe: Arctic Rivers vs. Southern Rivers

Climate Change Effects on River Flow in Eastern Europe: Arctic Rivers vs. Southern Rivers

Hydrological and Meteorological Variability in the Volga River Basin under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees

Evolution and driving mechanism of runoff in the Han River basin from 1980 to 2020 under changing environments

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