Forecasting and prediction of scorpion sting cases in Biskra province, Algeria, using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model

Abstract

OBJECTIVESThe aims of this study were to highlight some epidemiological aspects of scorpion envenomations, to analyse and interpret the available data for Biskra province, Algeria, and to develop a forecasting model for scorpion sting cases in Biskra province, which records the highest number of scorpion stings in Algeria.METHODSIn addition to analysing the epidemiological profile of scorpion stings that occurred throughout the year 2013, we used the Box-Jenkins approach to fit a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to the monthly recorded scorpion sting cases in Biskra from 2000 to 2012.RESULTSThe epidemiological analysis revealed that scorpion stings were reported continuously throughout the year, with peaks in the summer months. The most affected age group was 15 to 49 years old, with a male predominance. The most prone human body areas were the upper and lower limbs. The majority of cases (95.9%) were classified as mild envenomations. The time series analysis showed that a (5,1,0)×(0,1,1)12 SARIMA model offered the best fit to the scorpion sting surveillance data. This model was used to predict scorpion sting cases for the year 2013, and the fitted data showed considerable agreement with the actual data.CONCLUSIONSSARIMA models are useful for monitoring scorpion sting cases, and provide an estimate of the variability to be expected in future scorpion sting cases. This knowledge is helpful in predicting whether an unusual situation is developing or not, and could therefore assist decision-makers in strengthening the province’s prevention and control measures and in initiating rapid response measures.

Demographic and epidemiological characteristics of scorpion envenomation and daily forecasting of scorpion sting counts: the case of Touggourt in Algeria

“…An examination of the relationship between monthly scorpion sting data and the climate variables showed a strong correlation with monthly average temperature (r = 0.91) with an apparent quadratic relationship (S = -0.0004 T 2 +0.19 T+9.73; R 2 = 0.95) and high correlation with relative humidity (r = -0.70) with a quadratic relationship (S = 0.0007 RH 2 -0.29 RH+61.74; R 2 = 0.72); which is consistent with results obtained in other geographical regions affected by scorpionism [16,17]. At the daily level, the relationship was not readily apparent, although a high correlation was found for T (r = 0.69) and the correlation with RH was significant (r = -0.45); however, these climate variables were statistically significant in the modelling process.…”

“…The most prone body parts to stings were found to be the legs and arms. Several studies carried out in other affected provinces of the country and in other affected countries have presented consistent findings [8,9,16,17,33].…”

“…With respect to location, a significant variation according to the sex of the patient was observed, and almost threequarters of sting accidents occurred inside dwellings. The percentage of people stung inside dwellings differs from province to province; in Biskra Province, situated in the central-eastern area, 46% of sting cases occurred inside dwellings, whereas in El Bayadh Province, in western Algeria, 65% of sting cases arose inside dwellings [16,17]. The high frequency of accidents inside the dwelling may reflect significant exposure to scorpion accidents in home environment while carrying out domestic activities.…”

“…The association of scorpion sting incidence with climate variables, using monthly data, in many affected regions, was previously performed using multiple linear regression [13][14][15]. However, in recent years, other statistical approaches using monthly data, such as times series analysis and count data, are taking over [16][17][18][19].…”

Predictive determinants of scorpion stings in a tropical zone of south Iran: use of mixed seasonal autoregressive moving average model

“…In fact, since scorpions are cold-blooded arthropods, they are more active in warm months and probably these months comprise their reproduction period [ 23 ]. Most likely, scorpions enter human dwellings during warm months to catch prey, which causes an increase in their activity [ 37 ].…”