BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVESThe present study aimed to examine the dynamic relationship between climate factors and the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Biskra province, the largest focus of CL in Algeria, recording every year the highest incidence of CL in the country. The goal was to find the relationship between climate factors and CL incidence and identify the best model to estimate the variability among future CL cases.METHODSWe carried out a time series analysis based on the Box-Jenkins method to fit an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model incorporating climate factors to the monthly recorded CL cases in Biskra province from 2000 to 2014.RESULTSAn ARMA (3,3) model incorporating temperature at a lag of 5 months and relative humidity was appropriate for forecasting the monthly data for CL between 2000 and 2009 in Biskra province. Temperature had a higher effect followed by relative humidity. The model was used for predicting monthly CL cases from January 2010 to December 2014; the predictions matched the recorded data.CONCLUSIONSARMA models produce reliable models for prediction of CL cases provided that climate variables are available. The models could assist public health services in preparing for the future. This is an optimistic finding for forecasting CL by means of a surveillance system using climate information.

OBJECTIVESThe aims of this study were to highlight some epidemiological aspects of scorpion envenomations, to analyse and interpret the available data for Biskra province, Algeria, and to develop a forecasting model for scorpion sting cases in Biskra province, which records the highest number of scorpion stings in Algeria.METHODSIn addition to analysing the epidemiological profile of scorpion stings that occurred throughout the year 2013, we used the Box-Jenkins approach to fit a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to the monthly recorded scorpion sting cases in Biskra from 2000 to 2012.RESULTSThe epidemiological analysis revealed that scorpion stings were reported continuously throughout the year, with peaks in the summer months. The most affected age group was 15 to 49 years old, with a male predominance. The most prone human body areas were the upper and lower limbs. The majority of cases (95.9%) were classified as mild envenomations. The time series analysis showed that a (5,1,0)×(0,1,1)12 SARIMA model offered the best fit to the scorpion sting surveillance data. This model was used to predict scorpion sting cases for the year 2013, and the fitted data showed considerable agreement with the actual data.CONCLUSIONSSARIMA models are useful for monitoring scorpion sting cases, and provide an estimate of the variability to be expected in future scorpion sting cases. This knowledge is helpful in predicting whether an unusual situation is developing or not, and could therefore assist decision-makers in strengthening the province’s prevention and control measures and in initiating rapid response measures.

We give the lists of all non-primitive number fields of degree eight having two, four and six real places of discriminant less than 6688609, 24363884 and 92810082, respectively, in absolute value. For each field in the lists, we give its discriminant, the discriminant of its subfields, a relative polynomial generating the field over one of its subfields and its discriminant, the corresponding polynomial over Q, and the Galois group of its Galois closure.

Scorpionism represents a serious public health problem in Algeria. More than 68% of the national population is at risk of scorpion stings. M'Sila ranks among the endemic provinces of the country and records every year a high incidence of scorpion stings. A survey on epidemiological characteristics of scorpion stings was established. Using the monthly recorded scorpion sting data for the period 2001-2010 for M'Sila province, the linkage between scorpion stings and weather conditions was demonstrated through time series analysis and regression analysis considering the number of scorpion stings as dependent variable and climatic conditions as independent variables. The temperature, precipitation and wind are the retained climate factors, and the temperature has the higher effect. The model predicted the number of scorpion stings in 2011 with a good accuracy. The model could be used by public health makers of the province to anticipate the demand for antivenoms and symptomatic drugs so that they can be distributed in advance. This raises optimism for forecasting scorpion stings provided the availability of appropriate climate information.

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Abstract. In this work, we establish lists for each signature of tenth degree number fields containing a totally real quintic subfield and of discriminant less than 10 13 in absolute value. For each field in the list we give its discriminant, the discriminant of its subfield, a relative polynomial generating the field over one of its subfields, the corresponding polynomial over Q, and the Galois group of its Galois closure.We have examined the existence of several non-isomorphic fields with the same discriminants, and also the existence of unramified extensions and cyclic extensions.

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Abstract. In this paper, we enumerate all number fields of degree 10 of discriminant smaller than 10 11 in absolute value containing a quintic field having one real place. For each one of the 21509 (resp. 18167) found fields of signature (0, 5) (resp. (2, 4)) the field discriminant, the quintic field discriminant, a polynomial defining the relative quadratic extension, the corresponding relative discriminant, the corresponding polynomial over Q, and the Galois group of the Galois closure are given.In a supplementary section, we give the first coincidence of discriminant of 19 (resp. 20) nonisomorphic fields of signature (0, 5) (resp. (2, 4)).