Demographic and epidemiological characteristics of scorpion envenomation and daily forecasting of scorpion sting counts: the case of Touggourt in Algeria

Abstract

This study was conducted to provide better insights into the demographic and epidemiological characteristics of scorpion envenomation in an endemic area in Algeria and to identify the model that best predicted daily scorpion sting counts. METHODS:Daily sting data from January 1, 2013 to August 31, 2016 were extracted from questionnaires designed to elicit information on scorpion stings from the two emergency medical service providers in Touggourt, Algeria. Count regression models were applied to the daily sting data. RESULTS:A total of 4,712 scorpion sting cases were documented, of which 70% occurred in people aged between 10 years and 49 years. The male-to-female ratio was 1.3. The upper and lower limbs were the most common locations of scorpion stings (90.4% of cases). Most stings (92.8%) were mild. The percent of people stung inside dwellings was 68.8%. The hourly distribution of stings showed a peak between 10:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. The daily number of stings ranged from 0 to 24. The occurrence of stings was highest on Sundays. The incidence of scorpion stings increased sharply in the summer. The mean annual incidence rate was 542 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The fitted count regression models showed that a negative binomial hurdle model was appropriate for forecasting daily stings in terms of temperature and relative humidity, and the fitted data agreed considerably with the actual data. CONCLUSIONS:This study showed that daily scorpion sting data provided meaningful insights; and the negative binomial Hurdle model was preferable for predicting daily scorpion sting counts.

A Hybrid Approach Based on Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Neural Network Autoregressive Models to Predict Scorpion Sting Incidence in El Oued Province, Algeria, From 2005 to 2020

“…8,9 Males represented slightly more than two-thirds of reported cases; a similar pattern is observed in the affected provinces of the country. [10][11][12] Similar conclusions have been reached in studies performed in Iran and Morocco. 13,14 However, this is not a strict rule; Grande do Norte state in Brazil showed a female predominance.…”

“…12 , 30 In recent years, other statistical approaches such as times series analysis and count data are taking over. 10 , 16 A first study on the daily scorpion sting count was achieved in 2020 by Boubekeur et al 11 In this study, NNAR and hybrid SARIMA-NNAR models were first used in the prediction of monthly scorpion sting cases. These models can be more suitable for capturing nonlinearity in the data and can generate better predictions; numerous studies on health-related data have pinpointed the usefulness of these models to obtain appropriate predictions with high accuracy.…”

Clinical manifestations and management of Tityus species envenoming: A systematic review

“…The World Health Organization (WHO) recognizes scorpion stings as a global medical-sanitary problem in many tropical and subtropical countries (Chippaux & Goyffon, 2008). It is estimated that 1.2 million people are stung by scorpions annually (Boubekeur et al, 2020). According to the SINAN (Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação) database from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, that reports scorpion accidents, the number of Brazilian scorpion stings has surpassed 120,000 cases in 2017.…”