Forecast of Demographic Processes in Russia and in Countries of Central and Eastern Asia in the 21st Century

Манаков, Андрей; Суворков, Павел

doi:10.1134/s1875372818010031

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…They even raised the idea of 'substitution' or 'replacement' immigration for several million people to offset current population losses. In support of Vishnevsky (2000), Manakov and Suvorkov (2018) predicted that the population of Russia would decrease to 83.6-120.3 million people, compared to current 146 million people, by the end of the century. Russian population is currently decreasing and this general population decrease may also help to account for the absence an 'eastward trend' in population mobility.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and ‘attractiveness’ across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century

Parfenova

Tchebakova

Soja

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In the past, human migrations have been associated with climate change. As our civilizations developed, humans depended less on the environment, in particular on climate, because technological and economic development in the span of human history allowed us to adapt to and overcome environmental discomfort. Asian Russia (east of the Urals to the Pacific) is known to be sparsely populated. The population is concentrated along the forest-steppe in the south, with its comfortable climate and thriving agriculture on fertile soils. We use current and predicted climate scenarios to evaluate the climate comfort of various landscapes to determine the potential for human settlers throughout the 21st century. Climate change scenarios are taken from 20 CMIP5 general circulation models. Two CO 2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP 2.6 representing mild climate change and RCP 8.5 representing more extreme changes, are applied to the large subcontinental territory of Asian Russia. The ensemble January and July temperature anomaly means and annual precipitation are calculated with respect to the baseline 1961-1990 climate. Three climate indices, which are important for human livelihood and well-being, are calculated based on January and July temperatures and annual precipitation: Ecological Landscape Potential, winter severity, and permafrost coverage. Climates predicted by the 2080s over Asian Russia would be much warmer and milder. Ensemble means do not show extreme aridity. The permafrost zone is predicted to significantly shift to the northeast. Ecological Landscape Potential would increase 1-2 categories from 'low' to 'relatively high' which would result in a higher capacity for population density across Asian Russia. Socio-economic processes and policy choices will compel the development that will lead to attracting people to migrate throughout the century. Therefore, understanding ecological landscape potential is crucial information for developing viable strategies for long-term economic and social development in preparation for climate migration and strategic adaptation planning.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%