Foot‐and‐mouth disease and the Mexican cattle industry

Abstract

The objective of this article is to analyze the domestic and international effects of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the Mexican cattle industry. A discrete time dynamic optimization model of the Mexican cattle sector is specified, and linked to domestic and international markets. Economic consequences of FMD outbreaks are simulated over time and under different scenarios. Specific findings and general policy recommendations are provided. The study reports a range of outbreaks from localized to large scale and suggests that changes in economic surplus due to FMD range from a positive net gain of $0.89 to $1.6 billion to a net loss of about $67 billion, depending on the specific mitigation strategy and outbreak scenario. JEL classifications: F14, F17, Q11, Q17, Q18

Economic Welfare Impacts of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease in the Canadian Beef Cattle Sector

“…The impacts of an FMD outbreak in Canada, when compared to other studies, differ but this variation is due in part to the structure of the beef industry in Canada and the international markets to which Canada is exposed. When compared to similar models of FMD outbreaks for Australia (Tozer and Marsh 2012) and Mexico (Nogueira et al 2011) the results are mixed. As noted earlier, Canada is both an exporter and importer of beef and beef cattle, Australia is major exporter and Mexico is a net importer.…”

“…As noted earlier, Canada is both an exporter and importer of beef and beef cattle, Australia is major exporter and Mexico is a net importer. Nogueira et al () found that in most cases the change in producer surplus was positive, except for very low control rates, and the change in consumer surplus was negative, except in the case of a very high control rate. The costs of an outbreak in Australia depended on the location of the outbreak, as Tozer and Marsh () utilized a zoned trade ban model; however in Australia, as in Mexico, consumers suffered the highest impact of an outbreak of FMD.…”

Economic Assessment of Zoonotic Diseases: An Illustrative Study of Rift Valley Fever in the United States

“…In the research laboratory fire scenario, the producers' losses to capital and management and consumers' welfare gains were $1515.3 million and $2005.1 million, respectively. The positive consumer surplus changes are a result of small supply shocks and loss of international export markets (see Paarlberg et al., ; Nogueira et al., ; Tozer and Marsh, for further discussion). In other words, if adverse consumer's reaction to a disease outbreak is small and only few livestock are culled, it is possible for consumers of agricultural products to benefit from a small RVF outbreak because bans on agricultural exports lead to oversupply and reduce domestic meat and dairy prices, which benefit consumers.…”

Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza–related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare

“…Disdier and Marette, 2010;Peterson and Orden, 2008), and linkage to dynamic herd-size models (e.g. Niemi and Lehtonen, 2011;Nogueira et al, 2011;Mangen and Burrell, 2003), or other information related to the impact of specific measures has considerably amplified. Two spatial equilibrium models could be identified that focus specifically on global poultry trade.…”