We use two methodological approaches to analyze avian influenza related quarantine measures. First, a Heckman type gravity model is used to estimate the trade impact and second, a spatial partial equilibrium simulation model is developed to simulate welfare changes. The simulation model considers spread and transmission risk according to the disease status of the importing country as well as parameter uncertainty of the calibrated coefficients by using a Monte Carlo approach. The econometric results show that the principle of regionalization is preferred to import trade bans for uncooked meat. The simulation results verify the negative welfare impact of currently implemented regulatory policies and indicate that significant trade diversion effects according to the disease status of countries occur. The welfare results confirm that a trade ban is not the most appropriate measure to address the infection risk resulting from the spread of the avian influenza virus.Keywords: animal disease, quarantine measure, non-tariff measure, welfare, gravity model, simulation model. JEL-classification: F14, F17, Q11, Q17, Q18 Acknowledgement: This work was carried out within the project "NTM-IMPACT: Assessment of the impacts of non-tariff measures on the competitiveness of the EU and selected trade partners" financed by the 7th EU research framework program.
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