Following-Up on Uncertain Environmental Assessment Predictions: The Case of Offshore Oil Projects and Seabirds Off Newfoundland and Labrador

Abstract

Environmental assessments (EAs) predict project environmental effects with varying degrees of certainty. Articulating prediction uncertainty and linking it to EA follow-up is a best practice for reducing uncertainty. This study examines predictions from Canadian oil projects off Newfoundland and Labrador between 1985 and 2012 concerning seabirds, the valued ecosystem component identified as the most vulnerable to oil exploitation in an area frequented by millions of migratory birds. We asked if these EA predictions: (a) reported uncertainty ratings; (b) for those reporting medium and high uncertainty ratings whether the predictions were addressed by EA follow-up; and (c) if prediction uncertainty was reduced by EA follow-up and reflected in subsequent EAs. Prediction uncertainty reporting was rare and uncertainties were not resolved through EA follow-up. Assumptions of negligible or low environmental effects on seabirds off Newfoundland and Labrador from offshore oil and gas extraction have been supported through decades by sustaining uncertainty.

Reflecting on, and revising, international best practice principles for EIA follow-up

“…This resonates with Tung (2017) who frames follow-up as being an important aspect of taking a precautionary approach to EIA as it is intended that proponents 'monitor the operation of the approved activity… [and]… report publicly on the environmental consequences and outcomes associated with their activities' (p249). Similarly, Fraser and Russell (2016) argue that a critical function of EIA follow-up lies in addressing, reducing or resolving uncertainty in EIA in relation to predictions and other components of the pre-approval decision. These points also relate to the role of EIA follow-up in adaptive management (see the seminal work of Holling, 1978), a topic we address later on.…”

Closing the regulatory gap: revisions to the conventional practice of ex-post plans for EIAs to protect the valued components of Aboriginal peoples in Canada

“…Although the reduction of uncertainty should be an objective of ex-post plans, Fraser and Russell (2016) have found that EIAs often fail to link predictions of uncertainty to the substance of ex-post plans. They suggest the extent of uncertainty should be determined for each prediction as part of standard EIA practice to inform the substance in ex-post plans.…”

“…Measures that are then incorporated into ex-post plans to address potential adverse effects to valued components should be proportionate to the scientific uncertainty. In this context, as Fraser and Russell (2016) importantly note, a prediction of significant effect with a high level of confidence and thus less uncertainty would normally have a greater focus in ex-post plans. The notable exception in their view is when a prediction of not significant has a low level of confidence due to insufficient data or other technical reasons, which would make the uncertainty considerable.…”