Fertility variations in the recession context: the case of Greece

Abstract

Research on the counter-or pro-cyclical nature of aggregate fertility over economic cycles has been inconclusive, as results vary significantly across regions and over time. This work examines the variations in Greek birth rates, and confirms that fertility rates in Greece have declined since 2010. Partly as a response to economic uncertainty, childbearing decisions have been revised downward, although not uniformly across population groups. According to our analysis, almost 40,000 fewer babies were born in Greece between 2010 and 2015 than would have been born if pre-recession fertility rates had remained unchanged. Those missing births are mainly attributed to women under age 30, as well as to non-employed women of all ages. In terms of birth order, most of the missing births are second-or higher-order births. Even if a catch-up process occurs in the years to come, the foregone births are already visible as a cavity on the population pyramid.

Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018

“…Although recent economic expansions reflected a (more or less) generalized fertility recovery [8,33], higher suburban fertility was assumed to be dependent on specific forces (e.g., class segregation or social diversification, income disparities, asymmetries in the job market, migrations, changing lifestyles and beliefs, and increasing volatility in housing demand) interacting over longer time intervals [89,94]. Contrasting with earlier evidence across Europe [24,25], our results suggest that the recession has brought only a moderate decrease in fertility rates, despite an intense-although temporary-increase in unemployment rates [99,100,105,107,112]. These dynamics may determine delayed impacts on fertility rates that could be more clearly observed in the next few years, when the recession will display long-term societal impacts in Athens.…”

“…In Southern Europe, several regions have experienced significant demographic changes, with a transition from rigid family life courses toward a new regime of delayed marriage, increasing cohabitation, postponement of childbearing, and divorce or separation [8]. In such a context, the recession led to a profound deterioration of the labor market, with an unprecedented loss of jobs and acute effects on the economic situation, the conditions of life of families, and demographic behaviors [99]. The impact of the great recession on fertility was deeply investigated in Greece [98].…”

“…More specifically, an exploratory analysis of a gross birth rate was carried out at district (prefecture) and local (municipality) scale in Athens (Greece), comparing the last economic expansion (2000s) and recession (2010s). Given the financial crisis that has affected the Greek economy in the last decade, Athens provided a paradigmatic example of the possible response of local fertility to economic downturns at the residence, city, and metropolitan levels [98][99][100][101]. By outlining the intrinsic linkage between fertility dynamics and metropolitan sustainability, the implications of our study were finally discussed in a broader perspective of sustainable development, evidencing opportunities and limits of a comparative analysis of local fertility in urban, suburban, and rural contexts.…”

The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis

“…Research for Europe was initially limited, but expanded in recent years. Some studies were descriptive (Lanzieri et al 2013 ) or confined to single countries (Pailhé and Régnier-Loiler 2015 ; Cazolla et al 2016 ; Hilamo 2017 ; Tragaki and Bagavos 2019 ). Other studies adopted a broader comparative perspective, mostly based on country-level data.…”

Births and the City: Urban Cycles and Increasing Socio‐Spatial Heterogeneity in a Low‐Fertility Context

“…Fertility in suburban locations increased rapidly during late suburbanisation and counter-urbanisation, while declining in the most recent re-urbanisation stage. In this context, recession may have contributed to a greater spatial complexity in fertility dynamics (Tragaki & Bagavos 2019). While consolidated urban areas were still losing inhabitants through out-migration and ageing, a series of small-scale migration flows have increasingly concentrated 'non-traditional' households in and around city centres, pointing to the emergence of spatially fragile and socially fragmented landscapes (Bouzarovski et al 2010).…”