Fertility Intentions in Times of Rising Economic Uncertainty: Evidence from Italy from a Gender Perspective

Abstract

This study analyses the socio-economic determinants of the short-term fertility plans of Italian women and men living as couples, before and shortly after the onset of the 2007/2008 Great Recession, which may have affected their reproductive plans through a climate of rising economic uncertainty. Using multilevel models, we investigate how fertility intentions are related to the individual characteristics of the respondents and their partners as well as to changes in the economic context. The findings confirm that the Great Recession modified the determinants of short-term fertility intentions differently for women and men. Among the most relevant issues, we outline the importance of couples’ working conditions and the contextual labour market indicators.

Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions in Couples: A Dyadic Extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour

“…Our study has yielded experimental evidence for the impact of perceived economic uncertainty on fertility intentions among both female and male partners of the same couple. In line with previous studies adopting a gender perspective (Novelli et al, 2021 ), we detected certain differences between women and men. Indeed, women’s fertility plans varied depending on the perception of both low and high economic uncertainty, meaning that their attitudes towards having a child were more negative when they perceived economic uncertainty to be high, and more positive when it appeared to be low.…”

“…In conditions of mounting uncertainty, as in Italy, men and women appear to be more careful in their childbearing planning (Novelli et al, 2021). According to Vignoli et al, (2020aVignoli et al, ( , 2020b, individuals' childbearing decision-making could be largely affected by the way they envisage their future, especially under conditions of uncertainty; in this case, individuals are more likely to make decisions that may be independent from their actual economic situation and constraints.…”

Fertility plans in the early times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of occupational and financial uncertainty in Italy

“…However, this strictly depends on contextual characteristics such as the structure of the labour market and the welfare system, which can act as institutional filters [ 72 ]. In a context of institutional and welfare state weakness, a condition of economic uncertainty is much likely to negatively impact on fertility decisions, as found by Novelli and colleagues [ 16 ] in Italy during the Great Recession.…”

“…Few studies have specifically focussed on the relationship between recessions and fertility intentions. Most of them focused on the effect of the Great Recession [ 16 – 18 , 59 ], finding that perceived and experienced job and income worsening due to the crisis negatively influences fertility intentions. A short-term perspective on the consequence of a recession on fertility should primarily focus on intentions instead of behaviours, to better understand whether a short-term reduction in fertility is driven by a postponement or a possible withdrawal from the original plans.…”

“…An increasing number of studies on fertility intentions also considers the role of subjective indicators of economic uncertainty [ 12 – 14 , 16 , 73 – 75 ]. Economic and labour market deterioration is associated with an increase in perceived economic insecurity and occupational instability, and the individuals’ perception and expectation may be of particularly relevance for fertility intentions on top of objective economic conditions [ 39 , 40 ].…”