Fear, Anger, and Voting for the Far Right: Evidence From the November 13, 2015 Paris Terror Attacks

Abstract

The conjecture that negative emotions underpin support for far‐right politics is common among pundits and scholars. The conventional account holds that authoritarian populists catalyze public anxiety about the changing social order and/or deteriorating national economic conditions, and this anxiety subsequently drives up support for the far right. We propose that while emotions do indeed play an independent causal role in support for far‐right parties and policies, that support is more likely built upon the public’s anger rather than fear. This article explores the relative impact of fear and anger in reaction to the 2015 Paris terror attacks on the propensity to vote for the French far‐right party, the Front National, in the 2015 regional elections. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that anger is associated with voting for the Front National, while fear is associated with voting against the Front National. Moreover, anger boosts the Front National vote most powerfully among far‐right and authoritarian voters. On the other hand, fear reduces support for the far right among those same groups.

Anger and Authoritarianism Mediate the Effects of Fear on Support for the Far Right—What Vasilopoulos et al. (2019) Really Found

“…Importantly, he has now replicated the positive effect of fear on support for the Far Right in two other data sets from France and Germany (see Figures and ). Thus, overall, the effect of fear on support for the Far Right is indeed positive, as previous work would suggest, rather than negative, as suggested by Vasilopoulos et al ().…”

“…Vasilopoulos et al () aptly characterize paradigmatic thinking in social science—what they characterize as “conventional wisdom” and “the familiar story”—which holds that “public support for the far‐right springs directly from anxiety” (p. 1). The general idea is that fears “triggered by perceived threats from immigration, terrorism, economic insecurity, or some combination” enable “far‐right parties [to] stoke anxiety, especially among authoritarian‐minded citizens” and that these anxieties tend to contribute to the success and popularity of right‐wing extremity (pp.…”

“…A second, and more pressing, concern I have about Vasilopoulos et al’s () work is that, in its earnestness to support affective intelligence theory and to reject “the familiar story,” the article appears to misrepresent what their own data show. They claim that it is anger— rather than fear —that explains support for the Far Right in France following the terrorist attacks of November 13, 2015.…”

“…Vasilopoulos et al () concluded that fear reduced support for the National Front (see their Figure ), but this analysis was also based on a model that partialled out the effects of anger. When I asked Pavlos Vasilopoulos what the results were like when anger was omitted from the model, he shared with me a figure that revealed the opposite relationship: fear actually increased support for the National Front (see Figure here).…”

“…Fear was associated with an increased probability of voting for the National Front in France, 2015. Source : Results are based on the study reported by Vasilopoulos et al (). The figure is shared with kind permission by Pavlos Vasilopoulos and Martial Foucault.…”