Family Policies and the Western European Fertility Divide: Insights from a Natural Experiment in Belgium

Abstract

Countries in Northwestern Europe, including Belgium, report cohort fertility levels of close to two children per woman; whereas Central European countries, such as Germany, have levels of around 1.6 children. In seeking to explain these differences, some scholars have stressed the role of the social policy context, while others have pointed to variation in fertility‐related social norms. But because these influences are interdependent, it is difficult to isolate their effects on fertility trends. This study attempts to disentangle these two factors by drawing on a quasi‐natural experiment. After World War I Germany was compelled to cede the Eupen–Malmedy territory to Belgium. The population of this region has retained its German linguistic identity, but has been subject to Belgian social policies. We examine whether the fertility trends in this German‐speaking region of Belgium follow the Belgian or the German pattern. Our findings indicate that they generally resemble the Belgian pattern. This suggests that institutional factors are important for understanding the current fertility differences in Western Europe.

Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios

“…The most developed work-and family-friendly policies with generous family transfers, high level of childcare coverage, and policies promoting work-family balance are found in the Nordic countries (Rindfuss, Choe, and BraunerOtto 2016) and in some countries of Western Europe, especially France (Klüsener, Neels, and Kreyenfeld 2013). There, the family-friendly policies have nurtured and maintained positive attitudes towards larger families (Toulemon, Pailhé, and Rossier 2008).…”

“…However, the trends in higher-order transitions increasingly diverged between these two regions, with German-speaking countries showing a more polarised pattern marked by more frequent transitions to third and later births, and Southern Europe displaying a continuing fall to very low third and higher-order birth rates. In the German-speaking countries, traditional social expectations towards mothers remained strong in the analysed cohorts: Working outside home when children are small is widely perceived as harmful to the children's development (Klüsener, Neels, and Kreyenfeld 2013) and, in line with that, public childcare for children below age three was very limited until recently (with the exception of Eastern Germany; e.g., Leitner 2010). Perhaps this is why low-family-size ideals, "child-free lifestyles", and the "culture of childlessness" gained greater popularity in Germany than in any other country (Sobotka and Testa 2008;Klüsener, Neels, and Kreyenfeld 2013;Burkimsher and Zeman 2017).…”

“…In the German-speaking countries, traditional social expectations towards mothers remained strong in the analysed cohorts: Working outside home when children are small is widely perceived as harmful to the children's development (Klüsener, Neels, and Kreyenfeld 2013) and, in line with that, public childcare for children below age three was very limited until recently (with the exception of Eastern Germany; e.g., Leitner 2010). Perhaps this is why low-family-size ideals, "child-free lifestyles", and the "culture of childlessness" gained greater popularity in Germany than in any other country (Sobotka and Testa 2008;Klüsener, Neels, and Kreyenfeld 2013;Burkimsher and Zeman 2017). In Italy, childcare still relies strongly on traditional family organisation (e.g., grand-parents taking care of the children), which has been weakening recently (De Rose, Racioppi, and Zanatta 2008).…”

Fertility among descendants of immigrants in Belgium: The role of the partner

“…However, the influence of the partner might be different if it is not the cultural context that drives the very low fertility levels in Italy and Spain, but rather the institutional barriers impeding women to combine a family while remaining professionally active (Billari 2008;Perez and LiviBacci 1992). Given Belgian policies to ease the work-family balance (Klüsener, Neels, and Kreyenfeld 2013), second-generation women of Southern European origin could experience similar second and higher order birth rates independent of the origin and generation of their male partner, as the Italian or Spanish partner no longer experience these institutional barriers once he arrives in Belgium (Hypothesis 3b).…”

The Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Programme: Concept, content, and research examples

“…Such a narrative description of contextual features can offer valuable indications of the potential impact of macro-level factors on micro-level behaviour. In addition, the use of "thick descriptions" (Geertz 1973) 5 might sometimes be the appropriate way -and in some cases, the only way -to acknowledge the influence of contextual conditions on individual behaviour, and to explain demographic patterns and demographic outcomes (Hoem 2008;Klüsener, Neels, and Kreyenfeld 2013). However, "thick" descriptions usually do not provide statistically verified explanations for the effect of contextual conditions on demographic behaviour.…”